2026-10-09 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-10-09corrected
Computed from NOAA GML Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly means released on 9 October 2026, the January-September 2026 average CO2 concentration was 429.53 ppm, +1.82 ppm above the January-September 2025 average (versus +2.86 ppm for January-September 2025 over 2024), with year-on-year monthly gains between +1.26 ppm (July) and +2.26 ppm (February) in every month so far, a pace below the Met Office's February 2026 forecast of a 2.37 ± 0.55 ppm rise in the 2026 annual mean (Scripps basis, premised on La Niña-like conditions).
2026-10-09 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-10-09corrected
NOAA GML data released on 9 October 2026 put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for September 2026 at 426.07 ppm (+1.70 ppm on September 2025's 424.37 ppm), and the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean for July 2026 at 426.10 ppm (+2.01 ppm on July 2025's 424.09 ppm).
2026-10-08 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-08verified
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026 kept an El Niño Advisory in force, reporting that El Niño strengthened further over the past month with Niño indices reaching +2.1°C in Niño-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3 and +3.9°C in Niño-1+2, and gave a greater than 83% chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January-March 2027, with chances of a historic event exceeding all El Niños since 1950 (3-month relative ONI of +2.5°C or more) of 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December and 70% for November-January.
2026-09-28 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-09-28verified
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote on 28 September 2026 (The Climate Brink) that, because El Niño-driven tropical drought and fire weaken the land carbon sink (the reason NOAA's Mauna Loa CO2 growth rate hit a record 3.33 ppm in 2024), a similar spike in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is likely in 2027, with September 2026 seasonal model runs putting the 2026-27 El Niño's Niño 3.4 peak at around 4.1°C (middle 80% of ensemble members 3.4-4.6°C), well above the 2015-16 record of 2.75°C; this is a qualitative expectation, not a quantified CO2 forecast.
2026-07-07 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-07-07verified
NOAA GML data put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for June 2026 at 431.43 ppm (+1.82 ppm on June 2025), and the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean at 427.62 ppm versus 425.90 ppm in June 2025.
2026-06-07 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-06-07verified
Computed from NOAA GML Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly means, the year-on-year gains for January-May 2026 were +1.48 to +2.26 ppm, well below the May-over-May gains of 2023-2025 (+3.03, +2.90 and +3.61 ppm).
2026-06-07 · data · ●●● · published 2026-06-07verified
NOAA GML data put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for May 2026, the seasonal peak, at 432.34 ppm, the highest monthly value on record and +1.83 ppm on May 2025 (430.51 ppm), with the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean at 428.59 ppm.
2026-05-13 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) put the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate at 5.6 ± 0.02 GtC per year (2.6 ppm per year) during the decade 2015-2024.
2026-05-13 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) reported a record-high global atmospheric CO2 growth rate of 7.9 ± 0.02 GtC (3.7 ppm) in 2024, mainly due to the 2023/2024 El Niño conditions, and a preliminary 2025 growth estimate of 2.1 ppm.
2026-05-07 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-05-07verified
NOAA GML data put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for April 2026 at 431.12 ppm (+1.48 ppm on April 2025), and the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean at 428.67 ppm.
2026-05-03 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-05-03verified
NOAA GML's Mauna Loa (MLO) daily mean CO2 reached 433.95 ppm on 1 May 2026, the highest daily mean in NOAA's MLO daily record.
2026-04-07 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-04-07verified
NOAA GML data put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for March 2026 at 430.15 ppm (+2.00 ppm on March 2025), and the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean at 428.48 ppm.
2026-03-07 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-03-07verified
NOAA GML data put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for February 2026 at 429.35 ppm (+2.26 ppm on February 2025), and the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean at 428.44 ppm.
2026-02-07 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-02-07verified
NOAA GML data put the Mauna Loa (MLO) monthly mean CO2 concentration for January 2026 at 428.62 ppm (+1.97 ppm on January 2025), and the NOAA global marine-surface monthly mean at 428.02 ppm.
2026-02-04 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-02-04verified
The UK Met Office said even its forecast 2026 rise in Mauna Loa CO2 is 'too fast to track IPCC 1.5°C scenarios', which require a 2020s decadal average growth of 1.33-1.79 ppm/yr versus 2.61 ppm/yr observed for 2020-2025 (Scripps annual-mean basis; 1.91 ppm/yr in the 2000s and 2.41 in the 2010s).
2026-02-04 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-02-04verified
The UK Met Office forecast (published 4 February 2026) put the 2026 Mauna Loa annual mean CO2 concentration at 429.4 ± 0.6 ppm (Scripps basis), a rise of 2.37 ± 0.55 ppm on the annual-mean basis that is slightly slowed by moderate La Niña-like conditions (2.56 ppm without La Niña), with the May 2026 monthly mean forecast at 432.2 ± 0.6 ppm.
2026-02-04 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-02-04verified
The UK Met Office reported that the observed 2025 Mauna Loa annual-mean CO2 rise of 2.68 ppm (Scripps basis, annual mean 427.0 ppm) was larger than its forecast of 2.26 ± 0.56 ppm.
2026-01-10 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-10verified
Computed from NOAA GML annual Jan 1 -> Dec 31 growth rates, the Mauna Loa (MLO) rolling 10-year mean CO2 growth dipped from 2.64 ppm/yr (2015-2024) to 2.56 ppm/yr (2016-2025) only because the El Niño year 2015 (+2.95 ppm) left the window and 2025 (+2.23 ppm) entered it, while half-decade means still rose from 2.51 to 2.61 ppm/yr (MLO) and from 2.44 to 2.63 ppm/yr (global) between 2016-2020 and 2021-2025.
2026-01-10 · analysis · ●●● · published 2026-01-10verified
Computed as the mean of NOAA GML annual Jan 1 -> Dec 31 growth rates, the 10-year CO2 trend for 2016-2025 is 2.56 ppm/yr at Mauna Loa (MLO) and 2.53 ppm/yr for the global marine-surface mean, versus a global 2.38 ppm/yr for 2011-2020.
2026-01-10 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-10verified
NOAA GML's annual CO2 growth rate (Jan 1 -> Dec 31 change) for 2025 was +2.23 ppm at Mauna Loa (MLO) and +2.06 ppm for the global marine-surface mean (the smallest global rate since 2014), down from the 2024 records of +3.33 ppm (MLO) and +3.76 ppm (global).
2026-01-10 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-10verified
NOAA GML data put the 2025 annual mean CO2 concentration at a record 427.35 ppm at Mauna Loa (MLO) and 425.62 ppm for the global marine-surface mean; on the MLO annual-mean basis the 2025 increment was +2.74 ppm, down from +3.53 ppm in 2024.
2025-11 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
NOAA GML reported a Mauna Loa monthly mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of 426.46 ppm for November 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11: NOAA GML reported a Mauna Loa monthly mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of 426.5 ppm…
2025-11-13 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
A Nature study published alongside the Global Carbon Budget 2025 found land and ocean carbon sinks are 15% weaker than they would have been without climate impacts, contributing about 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1960.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-13: A Nature study published alongside the Global Carbon Budget 2025 found land and ocean…
2025-05 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
Scripps reported a May 2025 monthly mean of 430.2 ppm at Mauna Loa; NOAA reported 430.5 ppm.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-05: Scripps reported that the annual peak of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa reached a monthly…
2024 · data · ●●● · published 2026-01-03verified
The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reported that global annual-mean atmospheric CO2 rose by 3.5 ppm from 2023 to 2024, the largest single-year increase on record, versus a decadal mean growth of 2.4 ppm/yr over 2011-2020, driven by continued fossil fuel emissions, El Niño-weakened land carbon sinks and record wildfires in the Amazon and Africa.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reported that global annual-mean atmospheric CO2 rose…
2024 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
NOAA GML data give a 2024 annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of 424.6 ppm at Mauna Loa and 422.8 ppm for the global marine-surface average.
2026-10-15 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-15verified
Rystad Energy's Global Energy Scenarios 2026 (15 October 2026) said global fossil CO2 emissions are plateauing at around 40 Gt per year and projected that in its new 'Pragmatism' reference scenario they fall to about 20 Gt by 2050 (800 Gt cumulative over 2026-2050, about 0.35°C of additional warming), versus about 2 Gt in 'Climate first' and near today's level for longer in 'Fossil first'.
2026-10-14 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-14corrected
The IEA Oil Market Report of 14 October 2026 forecast global oil demand to fall by 2.6 mb/d on average in 2026 (2.5 mb/d year on year in Q4 2026, with diesel 25% of the drop) as the Iran war restricts product availability and raises fuel prices, with a partial 2 mb/d recovery leaving 2027 global oil use 620 kb/d (0.6%) below 2025 levels (its June Report had forecast a 1.1 mb/d fall in 2026 and a 2 mb/d rebound to 105.3 mb/d in 2027).
2026-10-14 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-14verified
The IEA Oil Market Report (14 October 2026) estimated that Gulf producers' crude oil exports rose by 4.4 mb/d to 13.9 mb/d in September 2026 (over 75% of pre-war levels), and that total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose 3.7 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d, while Middle East refined-product and LPG shipments (1.9 mb/d and 0.67 mb/d) remained below half of their pre-war levels (4.7 and 1.5 mb/d) and renewed attacks on regional energy infrastructure and tankers in October left the recovery 'fragile'.
2026-10-13 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-13verified
IRENA's World Energy Transition Outlook 2026 (launched 13 October 2026) projected that under existing government plans (its Planned Energy Scenario) global fossil CO2 emissions fall only 26% by 2050 (0.2% a year over 2025-2030 and 1.4% a year thereafter), with cumulative 2026-2050 energy-related CO2 of about 840 GtCO2 and warming likely at least 2°C, that its Decarbonising Energy Scenario (no longer aligned with the net-zero-by-2050 goal of earlier editions) still leaves about 4 GtCO2 of net fossil CO2 in 2050 (about 480 GtCO2 cumulative), and that only its revised 1.5°C Scenario, with a limited and temporary overshoot and more carbon capture including BECCS, reaches net-zero fossil CO2 in 2050 (cumulative slightly below 400 GtCO2).
2026-10-07 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07corrected
DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2026 (launched 7 October 2026) judged that global energy-related CO2 emissions 'likely peaked in the last 24 months' and that total anthropogenic CO2 emissions (energy, industrial processes and land-use change, net of direct air capture) peaked in 2024 at 43 Gt, forecasting energy-related CO2 falling 44% from 39 Gt today to 22 Gt in 2050 (and 65% to 12 Gt in 2060), with net-zero CO2 only in 2098 and end-of-century warming of about 2.3°C.
2026-10-05 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-10-05verified
A counterfactual analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (The Climate Brink, 5 October 2026) estimated that without wind and solar growth since 2005, global power-sector CO2 emissions in 2025 would have been 28% higher (16.9 rather than 13.2 billion tonnes), that wind and solar avoided about 23 billion tonnes of CO2 over 2006-2025 (15-30 billion depending on whether gas or coal fills the gap), and that global electricity-sector emissions 'have yet to clearly peak' but went down in 2025 and may be on track to decline in 2026.
2026-09-30 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-09-30verified
CREA's EU CO2 emissions tracker (30 September 2026) put EU fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (combustion in power, industry, buildings and domestic transport; excluding international aviation and shipping, industrial processes and land use) at 1,040.8 Mt in H1 2026, down 2.0% (20.9 Mt) on H1 2025, with oil emissions down 4.3% (oil used in industry and buildings down 10.8%, mostly in March-June after the Hormuz crisis), coal down 1.3% and gas up 0.9%, just over half the 3.6% annual pace needed for the EU's 2030 target.
2026-09 · data · ●●● · published 2026-09-25verified
The EDGAR 2026 report (September 2026) put total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF at 54.1 GtCO2e in 2025, up 0.7% on 2024, with China up 0.1% and the US up 2.2%.
2026-09-28 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-28corrected
Preliminary Kpler ship-tracking data reported by Reuters on 28 September 2026 showed crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounding in September 2026 to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February 2026 but still about 6 million b/d below February's 18.8 million b/d, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz expected to reach about 7.4 million b/d in September (the strait carried about a fifth of world crude and LNG supply before the war), while QatarEnergy-linked LNG carriers resumed visible Hormuz transits in September after none were seen in August.
2026-09-25 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-26verified
India's power ministry ordered on 25 September 2026, under the emergency provisions (Section 11) of the Electricity Act, 112 captive coal-fired power plants of at least 50 MW (serving aluminium, steel, cement and refinery sites) to run at maximum capacity from 1 October to 31 December 2026 and sell surplus power through exchanges to meet an expected rise in electricity demand, as nearly 40% of India's coal-fired plants were running on critically low fuel stocks amid El Niño-driven demand, according to Reuters.
2026-09-24 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-09-24verified
Climate TRACE (24 September 2026) estimated global greenhouse-gas emissions of 4.9 GtCO2e in July 2026, up 0.1% on July 2025, and 33.7 GtCO2e year-to-date for January-July 2026, 0.3% above the same period of 2025, with July emissions down 0.3% in China and 2.6% in the US but up 3.4% in India.
2026-09-17 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-17verified
CREA's China Energy and Emissions Trends August 2026 snapshot (17 September 2026) said indicators point to a broad-based decline in China's emissions in August 2026, with thermal power generation down 4% (coal power -5.2%, a second consecutive monthly fall), cement output -12%, crude steel -4% and refinery throughput -7% year on year, while thermal power capacity additions reached 50.3 GW in January-July 2026, up 20% and the highest for that period in 15 years.
2026-09-17 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-17verified
A CREA analysis for Carbon Brief (17 September 2026) found that India's CO2 emissions grew 3.7% year on year in the first half of 2026, driven by an 8% rise in steel and cement emissions (now 23% of India's CO2), even though India's power-sector CO2 was flat versus H1 2024 as clean energy met all of the 7% (63 TWh) electricity-demand growth over two years and oil and gas CO2 fell 7% year on year.
2026-09-16 · projection · ●●● · published 2026-09-16verified
A Carbon Brief analysis (16 September 2026) projected that global fossil CO2 emissions are set to fall by about 0.5% in 2026, driven by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
2026-09-03 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-03verified
A Carbon Brief/CREA analysis (3 September 2026) found that China's CO2 emissions fell 1% in Q2 2026 as oil use dropped 9% amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, leaving first-half 2026 emissions 'up marginally' but still below their 2023-24 peak.
2026-08-27 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-08-27verified
Climate TRACE (27 August 2026) estimated total greenhouse-gas emissions (CO2e) of 29.7 GtCO2e in H1 2026, up 0.2% on H1 2025, with China down 0.3%, the US down 0.4% and India up 1.5%.
2026-06-17 · projection · ●●● · published 2026-06-17verified
The IEA Oil Market Report (17 June 2026) forecast global oil demand to fall by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 after Q2 2026 deliveries plunged 5 mb/d year on year in the Hormuz shock, then to rise by 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d in 2027, above the implied 2025 level of about 104.4 mb/d.
2026-06-04 · setback · ●●● · published 2026-06-04verified
A Carbon Brief/CREA analysis (4 June 2026) found that China's CO2 emissions rose 2% year on year in Q1 2026, with power-sector emissions up 4% because of 'wasted' (curtailed) wind and solar, though emissions remained below the March 2024 peak.
2026-05-26 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-05-26verified
A Carbon Brief analysis (26 May 2026) found that China appears to have retrospectively changed the scope of its official carbon-intensity metric, so official figures now imply CO2 rose about 7% over 2020-2025 instead of 14% under the previous statistics, a gap of about 700-730 MtCO2 per year.
2026-05-13 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) put total CO2 emissions (fossil + land-use change) at 42.4 GtCO2 in 2024 and a slightly lower preliminary 42.2 GtCO2 in 2025, due to lower net land-use emissions (to about 4.1 GtCO2) mainly attributable to the end of El Niño conditions.
2026-05-13 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) found that total CO2 emissions (fossil + land-use change) grew 0.3% per year over 2015-2024, compared with 1.9% per year over 2005-2014.
2026-05-13 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) put the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C at 170 GtCO2 (50 GtC) from the start of 2026, about 4 years at 2025 emission levels.
2026-05-13 · data · ●●● · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) put global fossil CO2 emissions (fossil fuels + cement, net of cement carbonation) at 38.1 GtCO2 in 2025, up 1.0% (range 0.2% to 1.7%) on 2024 and 'an historical record high', with coal, oil and gas emissions each above 2024 levels (+1.0%, +1.1% and +1.3%).
2026-05-13 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-05-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) estimated China's 2025 fossil CO2 emissions at +0.4% (range -0.1% to +0.9%) on 2024, a plateau rather than a confirmed decline.
2026-04 · data · ●●● · published 2026-04-30verified
The IEA Global Energy Review 2026 (April 2026) estimated that global energy-related CO2 emissions (fuel combustion + industrial processes) rose by around 0.4% in 2025 to a record 38,082 MtCO2, 'the slowest rate since 2021', or nearly 38.4 Gt including flaring.
2026-04 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-04-30verified
The IEA Global Energy Review 2026 (April 2026) estimated 2025 energy-related CO2 at 12,718 MtCO2 for China (-0.5%) and 3,114 MtCO2 for India (-0.1%, India's first fall on record under normal economic conditions, 'largely due to cyclical factors resulting from the strong monsoon').
2026-04 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-04-30verified
The IEA Global Energy Review 2026 (April 2026) found that energy-related CO2 in advanced economies rose 0.5% in 2025, the first annual increase since 2018 excluding the post-Covid rebound and faster than emerging and developing economies (+0.3%) for the first time since the 1990s, with the US up 2.2% to 4,606 MtCO2 and the EU down 0.8% to 2,372 MtCO2.
2026-04-28 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-04-28verified
Ember analysis reported by Carbon Brief (28 April 2026) found that even in a worst case global coal power generation would rise by no more than 1.8% in 2026 despite the Iran crisis, with CREA data showing no return to coal as of March 2026.
2026-04-21 · achievement · ●●● · published 2026-04-21verified
Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 (21 April 2026) found that global fossil power generation fell 0.2% (-38 TWh) in 2025, the first time since 2020 and only the fifth time this century that it did not rise, as low-carbon generation (+887 TWh) outpaced electricity demand growth (+849 TWh).
2026-04-21 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-04-21verified
Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 (21 April 2026) found that fossil power generation fell in 2025 in China (-0.9%) and India (-3.3%).
2026-04-14 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-04-14verified
Carbon Monitor (Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 14 April 2026) concluded that China and India 'entered an emission plateau' in 2025 owing to massive renewable expansion, whereas the USA and EU saw fossil + industry CO2 emission rebounds.
2026-04-14 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-04-14verified
Carbon Monitor (Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 14 April 2026) estimated global fossil + industry CO2 emissions at a record 37.2 GtCO2 in 2025, with annual growth flattened to 0.7%, while global power-sector emissions fell 0.9%.
2026-02-12 · analysis · ●●● · published 2026-02-12verified
A Carbon Brief/CREA analysis (12 February 2026) found that China's CO2 emissions fell 0.3% in 2025 (Q4 2025 down 1%) and had been flat or falling for 21 months since March 2024, leaving open whether China has passed its peak.
2026-01-05 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-01-05verified
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote on 5 January 2026 that 'global emissions have yet to decline (even if they have plateaued)'.
2025-11-13 · projection · ●●● · published 2025-11-13corrected
The Global Carbon Budget 2025, released on 13 November 2025, projected global fossil CO2 emissions at a record 38.1 GtCO2 in 2025 (+1.1%).
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-13: The Global Carbon Budget 2025, released on 13 November 2025, projected global fossil…
2025-11-13 · data · ●○○ · published 2025-11-13legacy
According to the Global Carbon Budget 2025, China produces 32% of global fossil CO2 emissions.
2025-11-11 · analysis · ●●● · published 2025-11-11verified
A Carbon Brief analysis published on 11 November 2025 found that China's CO2 emissions had been flat or falling for 18 months, with China's transport emissions down 5%.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-11: A Carbon Brief analysis published on 11 November 2025 found that China's CO2 emissions…
2025-11-11 · projection · ●●○ · published 2025-11-11corrected
Carbon Brief's 11 November 2025 analysis found China's CO2 emissions in 2025 were finely balanced between a small fall or rise after the first three quarters.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-11: Carbon Brief's November 2025 analysis put China's CO2 emissions growth at +0.4% in 2024…
2025-09-25 · policy · ●●● · published 2026-01-03corrected
China submitted its 2035 climate target at the UN; Climate Action Tracker said the target is unlikely to drive down emissions.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-09-25: China submitted its 2035 NDC on 25 September 2025, targeting a 7-10% emissions…
2025-05-15 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2025-05-15corrected
A Carbon Brief analysis published 15 May 2025 found China’s CO2 emissions fell 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 as clean power growth drove the decline despite rapid power demand growth.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-05-15: A Carbon Brief analysis published 15 May 2025 found China’s CO2 emissions fell 1.6%…
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2025-04-30verified
According to the IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025, China installed 357.3 GW of solar PV in 2024, about 60% of the global total.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: According to the IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025, China installed 357.3 GW…
2026-10-18 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-18corrected
As seen on 18 October 2026 (tracker last updated 8 October), the Climate Action Tracker's 2035 Climate Target Update Tracker counted 153 countries that had submitted a 2035 NDC target since November 2024 (a count that lists the USA among submitters), covering 89.8% of global emissions and 86.9% of global population, and 41 countries that had not, including CAT-analysed Argentina, Egypt, Iran and Viet Nam, with only 3 submitted NDCs (Nigeria, Norway and the United Kingdom) rated 1.5°C-compatible against modelled domestic pathways; the UNFCCC NDC registry lists Chad (5 October), Grenada (7 October) and Equatorial Guinea (15 October 2026) as the latest submissions.
2026-10-15 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-10-15verified
Computed from the SBTi's by-company target data file (records updated to 15 October 2026), 2,848 organisations have validated net-zero targets (2,126 corporates, 718 SMEs and 4 financial institutions) and a further 994 have net-zero commitments, while 12,162 have validated near-term targets, among 15,816 listed organisations.
- 2026-10-13 · IRENA's World Energy Transition Outlook 2026 (launched 13 October 2026) projected that under existing government plans (its Planned Energy S…
2026-10-13 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-10-13verified
The Climate Action Tracker's US update (13 October 2026) kept its overall US rating at 'Critically insufficient' and projected that under the Trump Administration's policies (including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the rescission of the Endangerment Finding and of power-plant and vehicle emission standards) US greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF will still fall but only to 20-25% below 2005 levels by 2030, versus about 30-40% on the Biden Administration's trajectory (about 600-1,000 MtCO2e, or 11-23%, higher in 2030), with the US exit from the Paris Agreement and move to leave the UNFCCC having nullified its 2030, 2035 and 2050 (net-zero) targets.
2026-10-13 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-10-13corrected
The Climate Action Tracker (13 October 2026) downgraded Canada's 'Policies and action' rating to 'Critically insufficient' (overall rating unchanged at 'Highly insufficient'), projecting Canada's 2030 emissions at 662 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF, about 13% below 2005 under current policies and 14% with planned policies, versus a 30% cut projected for planned policies two years earlier and a 2030 NDC target of 40-45% below 2005, after the Carney government removed the consumer carbon price, cancelled the planned oil and gas emissions cap and repealed the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, and noted that Prime Minister Mark Carney has admitted Canada will not meet its 2030 and 2035 targets under his plan.
- 2026-10-07 · DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2026 (launched 7 October 2026) judged that global energy-related CO2 emissions 'likely peaked in the last 24…
2026-10-06 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-10-06verified
At the Pacific Pre-COP31 Leaders' event in Tuvalu and Fiji on 6 October 2026, 27 listed signatories including Australia, Türkiye, France, New Zealand, Indonesia, Singapore and the UAE adopted the Taku Pakasoa Declaration, which urges Parties that have yet to submit their 2035 NDCs to do so as soon as possible and reaffirms the COP28 call for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems 'to achieve net zero by 2050', while Pacific Island ministers at the Pre-COP discussed developing a regional roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
2026-09-28 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-28verified
The Climate Action Tracker's Indonesia update (28 September 2026) kept Indonesia's overall rating at 'Critically insufficient', finding that its 2035 NDC improves transparency but does not raise real ambition because current policies already overachieve it, that Indonesia's emissions gap to a 1.5°C-compatible pathway grows from 112% in 2030 to 141% in 2035 (median of the 2035 targets), and that emissions excluding LULUCF under the unconditional scenario keep rising to a 2050 peak at more than double 2019 levels, while Indonesia retains its net-zero-by-2060 target.
2026-09-23 · announcement · ●○○ · published 2026-09-23verified
At the UN Climate Summit 2026 in New York on 23 September 2026, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, saying greenhouse gas emissions are still rising and the world is expected to temporarily overshoot 1.5°C, called on every country to develop a credible roadmap with clear timelines to transition away from fossil fuels, with the G20 (about 80% of global emissions) to lead, and the summit launched a Global Grids Accelerator (citing more than 2,500 GW of renewable projects waiting for grid connections worldwide) and a critical-minerals initiative.
2026-09-23 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-09-23verified
Germany's federal cabinet approved, and Environment Minister Carsten Schneider presented at the UN in New York on 23 September 2026, a national roadmap for transitioning away from coal, oil and gas by 2045 (Germany's climate-neutrality target year), making Germany the third country after France and the Netherlands to publish such a roadmap; it reaffirms existing goals such as a coal exit no later than 2038 and at least 80% renewable electricity by 2030 (versus about 55% of gross electricity consumption now), with fossil fuels still 65% of German energy consumption in 2024.
2026-09-22 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-09-22verified
In his 22 September 2026 address to the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump attacked the IMO Net-Zero Framework (the proposed global marine-fuel greenhouse-gas-intensity standard and emissions-pricing mechanism meant to deliver the IMO goal of net-zero international shipping emissions by or around 2050) as a 'global carbon tax' and vowed 'there will be no global taxes' while he is president, signalling continued US opposition ahead of the framework's expected adoption vote at an extraordinary MEPC session on 4 December 2026, after US pressure had already postponed adoption by a year in October 2025.
2026-09-15 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-09-15verified
The Climate Pledge 2026 report (Amazon and Global Optimism, 15 September 2026) said more than 700 companies across 62 industries and 49 countries and territories, with combined revenue of $3.8 trillion, have committed to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, after 107 new signatories joined in 2025 (19% signatory growth), and that analysed signatories cut their self-reported Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 11% on average (about 14 MtCO2e over 2021-2024) versus 7% for non-signatory companies.
2025 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
The SBTi Trend Tracker 2025 reported that the cumulative number of companies with validated net-zero targets had trebled by the end of Q2 2025 compared with the end of 2023.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: The SBTi Trend Tracker 2025 reported 227% growth in corporate SBTi targets.
2025 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
The SBTi dashboard listed 12,353 companies with targets or commitments, including 2,325 companies with net-zero targets.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: The SBTi target dashboard listed about 11,000 companies with science-based targets,…
2025 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
Net Zero Tracker listed 138 of 198 countries with net-zero targets; the fetched page did not specify the number with legally binding national targets.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Net Zero Tracker counted 137 of 198 countries with net-zero targets, of which 35…
2025 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
The Net Zero Stocktake 2025 found that net-zero targets cover 77% of global GDP, or 83% including US state-level targets.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: The Net Zero Stocktake 2025 found that net-zero targets cover 77% of global GDP, or 83%…
2025 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
The IEA Net Zero Roadmap pathway requires cutting emissions 35% (2°C) or 55% (1.5°C) by 2030 versus 2019, tripling renewables to 11,000 GW by 2030, 4%/yr energy efficiency improvement (versus roughly 2% achieved), a 75% methane cut by 2030 and coal peaking before 2025.
2025-12 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-01-02corrected
India, Vietnam and Argentina had not submitted updated NDCs by the end of 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-12: India, Saudi Arabia and Argentina failed to submit updated NDCs (national climate…
2025-12 · setback · ●○○ · published 2025-12-20verified
UK supermarket Morrisons delayed its net-zero target from 2035 to 2050, the first major UK retailer to do so, as reported in December 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-12: UK supermarket Morrisons delayed its net-zero target from 2035 to 2050, the first major…
2025-12 · setback · ●●○ · published 2025-12-20verified
Ford announced a $19.5 billion write-down and scrapped EV models after US policy changes, as reported in December 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-12: Ford announced a $19.5 billion write-down and scrapped EV models after US policy…
2025-12 · setback · ●●○ · published 2025-12-20verified
Major banks including JP Morgan, HSBC and Barclays exited the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, as reported by The Guardian in December 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-12: Major banks including JP Morgan, HSBC and Barclays exited the Net-Zero Banking…
2025-11 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
The UK submitted an NDC committing to an 81% emissions cut by 2035, reported in November 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11: The UK submitted an NDC committing to an 81% emissions cut by 2035, reported in…
- 2025-09-25 · China submitted its 2035 climate target at the UN; Climate Action Tracker said the target is unlikely to drive down emissions.
2025-01 · policy · ●●● · published 2026-01-03legacy
In January 2025 the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement and abandoned its federal net-zero target.
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
The EDGAR 2025 report put 2024 global greenhouse-gas emissions at 53.2 GtCO2e, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: The EDGAR 2025 report put global greenhouse gas emissions (all gases, CO2-equivalent)…
2024 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
BloombergNEF estimated that a net-zero pathway requires about $5.6 trillion per year of energy transition investment, versus $2.1 trillion invested in 2024.
2024-11 · policy · ●●● · published 2026-01-03verified
COP29 in November 2024 agreed a climate finance goal of $300 billion per year for developing countries by 2035 (up from $100 billion), within a broader goal of $1.3 trillion per year.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024-11: COP29 in November 2024 agreed a climate finance goal of $300 billion per year for…
2024-11 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
COP29 in November 2024 finalised the Paris Agreement Article 6 rules for international carbon markets after a decade of negotiations.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024-11: COP29 in November 2024 finalised the Paris Agreement Article 6 rules for international…
2026-10-16 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-10-16corrected
IPCC Chair Jim Skea suspended the IPCC's 65th plenary session in Addis Ababa on 16 October 2026 without agreement on the timelines for the three Working Group contributions to the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), including Working Group I on the physical science basis, or on the IPCC budget, after the meeting overran and many least-developed-country and small-island delegations had left, leaving both items 'open and under discussion' until the session resumes, which the IPCC said would be 'at the earliest opportunity'.
2026-10-14 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-10-14verified
The 2026 State of the Climate report (Ripple, Wolf, Mann, Rockström et al., BioScience, published 14 October 2026) found that the rate of global warming appears to be accelerating, nearly doubling from about 0.19°C per decade over 1970–2010 to about 0.36°C per decade since 2010, with 7 of the 16 climate vital signs it tracks at record extremes and the strong El Niño putting 2026 on track to be one of the hottest years on record.
2026-10-14 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-14verified
NASA GISS's GISTEMP GMSTA prediction update of 14 October 2026 (with Columbia's IRI/CCSR) estimated 2026 annual global mean surface temperature at 1.548°C above 1850–1900 from the NMME model mean (up from 1.526°C in the 11 September update), or 1.426 ± 0.061°C (95% CI) from its year-to-date regression, and projected 2027 at 1.643 ± 0.227°C (95% CI) from its projected DJF ENSO model.
2026-10-09 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-09verified
NOAA NCEI's September 2026 global climate report (9 October 2026) put the September 2026 global surface temperature at 1.33°C above the 1901–2000 average, the second-warmest September in the 1850–2026 record (0.07°C behind 2023), with the global ocean surface departure of +1.10°C the highest for any month on record, and January–September 2026 at +1.17°C, second only to 2024 (+1.24°C), giving a greater than 99% probability that 2026 ranks among the five warmest years, with second-warmest the most likely outcome.
2026-10-09 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-09verified
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported on 9 October 2026 that September 2026 was the second-warmest September in ERA5 at 1.63°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average (0.11°C cooler than September 2023), the second consecutive month above 1.5°C in a run C3S expects to continue into 2027, that the 12-month average for October 2025–September 2026 returned to 1.50°C above pre-industrial for the first time since October 2025, and that January–September 2026 ranks second-warmest behind 2024.
2026-10-07 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07verified
DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2026 (launched 7 October 2026) forecast end-of-century warming of 2.3°C 'based on current IPCC climate sensitivity', with the 1.5°C carbon budget exhausted in 2029, the 2°C budget exhausted in 2052 and cumulative CO2 emissions overshooting the 2°C budget by 420 Gt (260 Gt of it emitted after 2060) before net-zero CO2 in 2098, judging 1.5°C 'effectively unattainable' but well below 2°C still attainable with stronger commitments.
2026-09-24 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-24verified
Berkeley Earth's August 2026 update (24 September 2026) put the August 2026 global mean surface temperature at 1.71 ± 0.11°C above the 1850-1900 average, the warmest August on record and the 2nd-warmest month of any kind (behind September 2023), with ocean surfaces at 1.296°C the warmest month on record for the oceans, while the September 2025-August 2026 12-month average was 1.48°C and January-August 2026 averaged 1.49°C.
2026-09-24 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-09-24verified
Berkeley Earth projected (24 September 2026) a roughly 93% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year on record (up from about 69% in its July update), with the 2026 annual global mean 'all but certain' to exceed 1.5°C above 1850-1900 (likely range 1.536-1.642°C), and a further substantial El Niño warming influence expected in 2027.
- 2026-05-13 · The Global Carbon Budget 2025 final paper (ESSD, 13 May 2026) put the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C …
- 2026-02-04 · The UK Met Office said even its forecast 2026 rise in Mauna Loa CO2 is 'too fast to track IPCC 1.5°C scenarios', which require a 2020s decad…
2025 · projection · ●●● · published 2026-01-03legacy
WMO gave 70% odds that the 2025-2029 five-year average global temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
2025-11-13 · analysis · ●●● · published 2025-11-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025, released on 13 November 2025, concluded that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is 'virtually exhausted'.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-13: The Global Carbon Budget 2025, released on 13 November 2025, concluded that the…
2024 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
The WMO State of the Global Climate 2024 put long-term global warming (the Paris Agreement metric) at about 1.3-1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
2024 · data · ●●● · published 2026-01-03verified
WMO confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record at 1.55°C +/- 0.13°C above the 1850-1900 average, based on a six-dataset average.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: WMO confirmed 2024 as the warmest year on record at 1.55°C +/- 0.13°C above the…
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
NOAA put the 2024 global temperature anomaly at 1.46°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level.
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
NASA GISS put the 2024 global temperature anomaly at 1.47°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900), confirming 2024 as the warmest year on record.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: NASA GISS put the 2024 global temperature anomaly at 1.47°C above pre-industrial…
2024 · data · ●●● · published 2026-01-03corrected
Copernicus reported 2024 global mean surface temperature at 1.60°C above 1850–1900, the first calendar year above 1.5°C.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: Copernicus reported the 2024 global mean surface temperature at 1.60°C above the…
2026-10-16 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-10-16verified
France and Germany announced on 16 October 2026, on the sidelines of the EU summit in Brussels, a joint position on the EU automotive package under which the 2035 CO2 fleet target for new cars would be lowered from a 100% to a 90% reduction with no requirement for carmakers to offset the remaining 10% (going beyond the Commission's December 2025 proposal, which also set 90% but with offsetting), in exchange for stronger 'Made in Europe' requirements, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz declaring the combustion-engine phase-out 'history'.
2026-10-16 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-16verified
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data (16 October 2026) showed global electric vehicle sales of 2.15 million in September 2026, down 2% year on year (up 17% month on month), bringing January–September 2026 sales to 15.5 million, up 3% on the same period of 2025, as record European sales (almost 600,000, +39% y/y) were outweighed by year-on-year falls of 44% in North America (against the September 2025 rush before the US federal EV tax credit expired) and 18% in China, whose passenger-car NEV exports hit a record 558,000.
2026-10-15 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-10-16verified
At the 15–16 October 2026 European Council, EU leaders did not agree to the postponement of the ETS2 carbon market for road-transport and building fuels (due to start in 2028 after an earlier one-year delay) until 2030 sought by the Visegrad countries and Italy, instead calling on the Commission to update its assessment of all impacts of ETS2, in particular its design and safeguards, and urging co-legislators to speed up reform of the EU ETS market stability reserve to curb carbon-price volatility.
2026-10-14 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-10-14corrected
Ember (14 October 2026) found that the 2030 energy-storage targets of the 33 jurisdictions with one among the 98 countries and the EU in its Global Renewable Target Tracker now sum to 822 GW, 2.9 times the total assessed at COP29 in 2024 (almost entirely due to China's new 460 GW target and the EU's first 200 GW bloc-wide target), still short of the COP29 Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge of 1,500 GW by 2030, which would require 214 GW of storage additions a year in 2026–2030 versus a record 118 GW (108 GW of it batteries) added in 2025, bringing global installed storage to 430 GW.
2026-10-14 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-10-14verified
The European Commission formally proposed on 14 October 2026 a one-year postponement of the EU Methane Regulation's monitoring, reporting and verification obligations for importers of oil, gas and coal (and of the methane-intensity reporting provisions for importers and EU producers), citing security-of-supply pressure from the Middle East conflict while saying the change does not affect the regulation's ambition; the proposal, which needs European Parliament and Council approval, would move the importer requirements from 2027 to 2028.
2026-10-13 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-13verified
The Forest Declaration Assessment 2026 (13 October 2026) found that global deforestation fell 15% in 2025 to just over 7 million hectares (releasing an estimated 3.9 billion tonnes CO2e), the largest annual decline since the 2018–20 baseline, but that the world remained 70% off track from the pathway to halt deforestation by 2030 (a cumulative 10.7 Mha excess since 2021), with humid tropical primary forest loss down 36% from 2024's fire-driven spike yet still 11% above the 2018–20 baseline, deforestation in tropical Africa still rising (2.4 Mha in 2025), and an estimated 11.8 Mha of forest under active restoration.
2026-10-13 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-10-13verified
Ember analysis (13 October 2026) of its 56-country monthly EV sales data found that battery-electric cars took 18% of global new car sales in January–August 2026 (up from 16% a year earlier, with BEV sales +11% y/y while plug-in hybrid sales fell 12% and combustion-car sales 6%), that BEV sales outside the US and China grew an estimated 45% and 49 of the 56 tracked countries set record BEV sales shares, and estimated that electric car fleets in oil-importing countries displaced about 200 million barrels of crude oil worth $20 billion in the six months since the Hormuz energy crisis began (about $14 billion of it in China), while the US BEV share of light-duty sales fell to 6%.
2026-10-12 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-12verified
China Passenger Car Association data released on 12 October 2026 showed new energy vehicles (battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and extended-range) took a record 67.0% of China's passenger-car retail sales in September 2026, up 9.1 percentage points year on year, even though NEV retail sales fell 16.7% year on year to 1.084 million (a ninth consecutive monthly decline; January–September 7.758 million, down 12.8%), as gasoline-car retail sales fell 43% and NEV exports rose 163.5% to 558,000.
2026-10-07 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07corrected
DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2026 (7 October 2026) forecast that electricity's share of global final energy demand rises from 21% today to 33% in 2045, that renewables supply 65% of global electricity by 2040, and that fossil fuels' long-constant ~80% share of primary energy falls to 51% by 2050, said fossil-fired power generation peaked globally last year and that renewables investment doubled from USD 860bn in 2021 to USD 1,770bn in 2026, while cutting its 2060 hydrogen and CCS forecasts by 29% and 15% versus its 2025 Outlook as hard-to-electrify decarbonisation technologies lose priority.
- 2026-10-05 · A counterfactual analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (The Climate Brink, 5 October 2026) estimated that without wind and solar gro…
2026-09-28 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-28verified
NHTSA finalised on 28 September 2026 the SAFE Vehicles Rule III amending US CAFE standards for model years 2022-2031, which the US Transportation Department said sets a fleetwide average of 34.9 mpg by 2031 (versus 50.4 mpg under the 2024 Biden-era rules) and will increase US gasoline consumption by 4.6% through 2050 relative to those rules.
2026-09-28 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-28verified
A European Commission spokesperson said on 28 September 2026 that the Commission plans to propose postponing the entry into force of the EU Methane Regulation (length not specified), after pressure from governments including France and the United States and after Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said on 25 September that Brussels was exploring a one-year delay of the rules for imported oil, gas and coal, whose monitoring and reporting obligations for importers are due to take effect on 1 January 2027.
2026-09-28 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-09-28verified
The European Heat Pump Association reported (28 September 2026) that residential heat pump sales in 12 European countries rose 11% in the first half of 2026 to about 1,163,000 units (from 1,048,000 in H1 2025), which it attributed to the oil and gas price spike after the Strait of Hormuz was closed in February 2026 and to Commission-encouraged cuts in electricity taxes.
2026-09-28 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-28verified
A Carbon Brief analysis (28 September 2026), comparing INPE data with GLOBIOM-Brazil modelling of a no-forest-code-enforcement scenario, estimated that at least 20,000 km2 of Brazilian Amazon deforestation has been avoided since President Lula took office in January 2023, as annual Amazon deforestation (INPE PRODES) more than halved from 11,594 km2 in 2022 to 5,731 km2 in 2025, with preliminary DETER alerts at 2,874 km2 for August 2025-July 2026.
2026-09-25 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-25verified
China's National Energy Administration data, as reported on 25 September 2026, showed China added 97.19 GW of solar PV capacity in January-August 2026, down about 58% from 230.61 GW in the same period of 2025 (August alone: 11.04 GW), alongside 53.26 GW of wind additions.
2026-09-24 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-24verified
ACEA data published on 24 September 2026 showed battery-electric cars took 21.7% of new EU car registrations in January-August 2026 (1,641,333 units, up from 15.8% a year earlier), marginally more units than petrol cars (1,634,733, also 21.7%, down from 28%), while the combined petrol and diesel share fell to 29% from 37.5% and hybrids led with 36.6%.
- 2026-09-23 · At the UN Climate Summit 2026 in New York on 23 September 2026, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, saying greenhouse gas emissions are s…
- 2026-09-23 · Germany's federal cabinet approved, and Environment Minister Carsten Schneider presented at the UN in New York on 23 September 2026, a natio…
2026-09-23 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-23verified
An analysis by CREA co-founder Lauri Myllyvirta, reported by Reuters on 23 September 2026, estimated that China's 2025 exports of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles avoided 374 MtCO2 of emissions in 2025 (more than the UK's annual emissions) and are expected to avoid about 6,900 MtCO2 over their lifetimes (up 31% from 2024's exports), with almost a third of the avoided emissions from solar exports to South Asia.
- 2026-09-22 · In his 22 September 2026 address to the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump attacked the IMO Net-Zero Framework (the proposed glo…
2026-09-22 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-09-22verified
The IEA's Electrification special report (22 September 2026), requested by COP31 hosts Türkiye and Australia, found that electricity supplied about 23% of global final energy consumption in 2025 (up from 17% in 2000), that fully exploiting today's cost-competitive electrification potential would raise this to about 33%, and that reaching the COP31 presidency's goal of 35% by 2035 (achieved in its High Electrification Scenario) requires going beyond today's policy settings, under which the share rises to slightly less than 30% by 2035.
2026-09-21 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-21verified
IRENA's third UAE Consensus tracking report, released with the COP31 Presidency and the Global Renewables Alliance on 21 September 2026, found that a record 693 GW of renewable power capacity was added worldwide in 2025 (513 GW solar PV, 158 GW wind), bringing total installed renewable capacity to about 5.15 TW, but that tripling to about 11.2 TW by 2030 now requires average net additions of about 1.2 TW per year in 2026-2030, and that sustaining the 2025 growth rate would leave a shortfall of about 0.6 TW in 2030 (down from 0.9 TW in the previous edition).
2026-09-21 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-21verified
IRENA's UAE Consensus tracking report (21 September 2026) found that global energy intensity improved by only 1.7% in 2025 (after 1.1% in both 2023 and 2024), well below the 4% per year doubling-efficiency goal, so that meeting the 2030 goal now requires 5.6% improvement per year, while grid and flexibility investment of up to about $1 trillion per year is needed in 2026-2030 versus $525 billion in 2025.
2026-09-18 · achievement · ●●○ · published 2026-09-18verified
Greensand, led by INEOS Energy with Harbour Energy and Nordsøfonden, entered commercial operation on 18 September 2026 as the EU's first full-scale offshore CO2 storage site, injecting CO2 sourced primarily from Danish biomethane plants into the depleted Nini West field about 1,800 m beneath the Danish North Sea, with capacity of up to 400,000 tCO2 per year in its first phase and potential expansion to 4-8 MtCO2 per year.
2026-09-17 · projection · ●○○ · published 2026-09-17verified
ExxonMobil's 2026 Global Outlook (17 September 2026) projected global energy-related CO2 emissions to fall about 20% from 36 billion tonnes in 2025 to 30 billion tonnes in 2050, up from the 27 billion tonnes it projected for 2050 a year earlier and far above the roughly 11 billion tonnes in IPCC 'likely below 2°C' scenarios, with coal still 15% of the 2050 energy mix and carbon capture and storage reaching 2 billion tonnes per year (down from its prior 3.1 billion).
2026-04-21 · achievement · ●●● · published 2026-04-21verified
Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 (21 April 2026) found that renewables (33.8% share, 10,730 TWh) overtook coal (33.0%, 10,476 TWh) in global electricity generation in 2025.
- 2026-04-21 · Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 (21 April 2026) found that global fossil power generation fell 0.2% (-38 TWh) in 2025, the first time…
2025 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
A 2025 Nature Communications study revised global reforestation potential down to 6-195 Mha (53-2,225 TgCO2e per year of sequestration) after sustainability safeguards, versus previous estimates of more than 1,000 Mha.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: A 2025 Nature Communications study revised global reforestation potential down to 6-195…
2025 · projection · ●●● · published 2026-01-03legacy
IEA Renewables 2025 projected that renewables would surpass coal as the world's largest source of electricity by the end of 2025.
- 2025 · The IEA Net Zero Roadmap pathway requires cutting emissions 35% (2°C) or 55% (1.5°C) by 2030 versus 2019, tripling renewables to 11,000 GW b…
2025 · projection · ●●● · published 2026-01-03verified
The IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 projected that more than one in four cars sold worldwide in 2025 would be electric.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: The IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 projected that more than one in four cars sold worldwide…
2025 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
Ember found that EV sales shares in Vietnam (~40%), Thailand (>20%) and Indonesia (15%) now exceed EV penetration in the US and Japan.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Ember found that EV sales shares in Vietnam (~40%), Thailand (>20%) and Indonesia (15%)…
2025 · setback · ●○○ · published 2026-01-02corrected
Tesla's 2025 vehicle deliveries fell 8.6% to 1.64 million.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Tesla's 2025 vehicle sales fell 9% to 1.64 million.
2025 · achievement · ●●○ · published 2026-01-02corrected
In 2025, BYD outsold Tesla in electric cars for the first time.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: BYD sold 2.26 million EVs in 2025 (+28%), overtaking Tesla as the world's largest EV…
- 2025-12 · Ford announced a $19.5 billion write-down and scrapped EV models after US policy changes, as reported in December 2025.
2025 · data · ●●○ · published 2025-07-21corrected
CarNewsChina reported that electric vehicles exceeded 50% of new car sales in China in the first half of 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Electric vehicles made up more than 50% of new car sales in China in 2025, according to…
- 2025-11-13 · A Nature study published alongside the Global Carbon Budget 2025 found land and ocean carbon sinks are 15% weaker than they would have been …
2025-11-13 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 found that the land carbon sink appeared to recover to its pre-El Niño strength in 2025 after two unusually weak years, aided by relatively low global fire CO2 emissions.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-13: The Global Carbon Budget 2025 projected the land carbon sink to recover to 3.2 GtC in…
2025-11-13 · projection · ●○○ · published 2025-11-13verified
The Global Carbon Budget 2025 projected CO2 emissions from land-use change at about 4.1 GtCO2 for 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-11-13: The Global Carbon Budget 2025 projected CO2 emissions from land-use change at about 4.1…
2024 · data · ●●● · published 2026-01-03corrected
IEA Renewables 2024 forecast global annual renewable capacity additions of 666 GW in 2024 in its main case.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: IEA Renewables 2024 reported a record 666 GW of renewable capacity added globally in…
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
IEA Coal 2024 reported that global coal demand hit a record 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, while projecting that demand has plateaued as renewables displace coal.
- 2024 · BloombergNEF estimated that a net-zero pathway requires about $5.6 trillion per year of energy transition investment, versus $2.1 trillion i…
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
BloombergNEF reported record global energy transition investment of $2.1 trillion in 2024, up 11% on the previous year.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: BloombergNEF reported record global energy transition investment of $2.1 trillion in…
2024 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
BloombergNEF reported China's 2024 energy transition investment at $818 billion, 39% of the global total.
2024 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
ADM's re:generations program delivered more than 5 million regenerative acres globally and engaged more than 28,000 growers in 2024.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: ADM's re:generations regenerative agriculture programme covered 5 million acres and…
2024 · data · ●●○ · published 2025-04-30verified
According to IEA-PVPS, about 600 GW of solar PV was added worldwide in 2024, bringing global cumulative solar capacity above 2.2 TW.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: According to IEA-PVPS, about 600 GW of solar PV was added worldwide in 2024, bringing…
- 2024 · According to the IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025, China installed 357.3 GW of solar PV in 2024, about 60% of the global total.
- 2024-11 · COP29 in November 2024 agreed a climate finance goal of $300 billion per year for developing countries by 2035 (up from $100 billion), withi…
- 2024-11 · COP29 in November 2024 finalised the Paris Agreement Article 6 rules for international carbon markets after a decade of negotiations.
2023 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 estimated the terrestrial CO2 sink at 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC in 2023.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: The Global Carbon Budget 2024 (ESSD) estimated the global land carbon sink at 2.3 +/-…
2026-10-15 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2026-10-15corrected
Frontier buyers (including Stripe, Google, Shopify, Autodesk, H&M Group and Workday) signed offtake agreements, announced on 15 October 2026, to pay 44.01 $11.7 million to permanently remove 20,932 tonnes of CO2 between 2028 and 2031 by injecting dissolved biogenic CO2 from wastewater-treatment biogas upgrading into peridotite rock, where it mineralises within 1-3 years; it is Frontier's first purchase of in-situ mineralization removal and its first in the Middle East, and 44.01 calls it the first commercial-scale project of its kind, moving from short-duration injection pilots towards continuous operation over multiple years.
2026-10-09 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-10-09verified
Parties to the London Convention and London Protocol meeting at the IMO (LC 48/LP 21, 5-9 October 2026) adopted a resolution establishing assessment frameworks for ocean fertilization, ocean alkalinity enhancement and ocean sinking of biomass, under which proposals are assessed case by case to show legitimate scientific research purpose and acceptable environmental risk, with the Parties stating that further research is needed before any activities beyond the research stage can be considered.
2026-10-08 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-10-08verified
RMI's New Frontiers Report for Carbon Dioxide Removal (8 October 2026), covering 14 CDR approaches including nature-based living-biomass removal, estimated end-of-2026 deployed CDR capacity at about 42 MtCO2 per year with $13.6 billion of funding raised across 514 tracked companies and 694 active or announced projects, and found that the 217 MtCO2 per year of 2030 supply implied by announced projects and company targets would require roughly 51% annual capacity growth.
2026-10-08 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-10-08verified
Gevo announced on 8 October 2026 the sale and delivery of 10,000 carbon dioxide removal credits through ClimeFi to a corporate buyer from its Gevo North Dakota ethanol BECCS facility, where fermentation CO2 is stored geologically more than a mile beneath the plant and which Gevo said has generated more than 700,000 tonnes of CO2 removal since capture began, while citing CDR.fyi data that only about 3% of roughly 50 million tonnes of contracted CDR has been delivered market-wide.
2026-10-07 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07verified
ClimeFi's CDR Market Review for Q3 2026 (7 October 2026) found that enhanced rock weathering made up a majority of a quarter's durable-CDR purchase volume for the first time, driven by the largest ERW deal on record, while biochar purchases (above 1 MtCO2 in each of the two previous quarters) fell to their lowest since Q1 2023, Microsoft's buying slowed to about 2% of Q3 volume with buyers other than Microsoft accounting for 64% of 2026 volume to date, and debt made up 94% of all disclosed Q3 private funding.
2026-10-06 · setback · ●○○ · published 2026-10-06corrected
Japanese industrial group Kawasaki Heavy Industries abandoned its direct air capture expansion plans and shifted its focus to CO2 capture, utilisation and storage, Quantum Commodity Intelligence reported on 6 October 2026.
2026-10-06 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-06verified
CDR.fyi's September 2026 market recap (6 October 2026) reported that more than 1 million tonnes of durable carbon removal were contracted in September 2026, led by Google's 1 Mt enhanced-weathering purchase from Terradot, up from about 128,000 tonnes contracted in August 2026.
2026-10-02 · setback · ●○○ · published 2026-10-02verified
Quantum Commodity Intelligence's monthly carbon-removal offtake tracking (2 October 2026) found the value of CDR offtake agreements on track to more than halve in 2026 compared with 2025, although September 2026 offered a partial reprieve with 21 offtake deals worth an estimated $148 million.
2026-10-01 · announcement · ●○○ · published 2026-10-01verified
Swedish utility Öresundskraft took a final investment decision on carbon capture at its Filbornaverket waste-to-energy plant in Helsingborg, described as the first EU waste-to-energy plant to reach FID for the full capture, transport and storage chain, and signed an agreement (announced 1 October 2026) with Northern Lights to ship and permanently store up to 200,000 tCO2 per year (both biogenic and fossil CO2) beneath the Norwegian North Sea from a targeted start-up in Q4 2029.
2026-09-28 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-28verified
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market approved (announced by Verra on 28 September 2026) Verra's VM0049 Carbon Capture and Storage v1.0 methodology and its accompanying modules, including direct air capture (VMD0056) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (VMD0059) plus CO2 transport and geological storage, under its Core Carbon Principles, so that DACCS and BECCS removal credits issued under VM0049 can qualify for the CCP high-integrity label.
2026-09-24 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-09-24corrected
The Government of Canada said on 24 September 2026 that it will develop a policy framework under Paris Agreement Article 6 to let Canadian companies, including carbon removal suppliers, trade internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), which it said could contribute billions of dollars to the Canadian economy and catalyse domestic climate mitigation projects and technologies.
2026-09-21 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2026-09-21verified
ADM announced on 21 September 2026 its planned entry into the voluntary carbon removal market with credits from the 800,000+ tCO2-per-year biogenic (ethanol fermentation) carbon capture operation at its Columbus, Nebraska corn processing complex, whose CO2 is stored permanently in Tallgrass's Eastern Wyoming Sequestration Hub; the credits are undergoing Puro.earth certification, with initial issuance expected by the end of 2026 and a 15-year crediting period.
2026-09-18 · announcement · ●○○ · published 2026-09-18corrected
Japan Airlines and Climeworks Solutions announced on 18 September 2026 what they describe as the first CORSIA-compliant carbon removal purchase agreement, covering a portfolio of removal credits meeting ICAO CORSIA eligibility (such as soil carbon and biochar) plus separately purchased Climeworks direct air capture credits, with volumes and prices undisclosed.
- 2026-09-18 · Greensand, led by INEOS Energy with Harbour Energy and Nordsøfonden, entered commercial operation on 18 September 2026 as the EU's first ful…
2026-09-16 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-16verified
The US National Academies' 2026 update to its marine carbon dioxide removal report series (16 September 2026) found marine CDR has advanced through field trials and private credit sales, but that major questions remain over whether it can remove CO2 at meaningful scale, how net removal can be measured and verified, and its long-term environmental effects, and that governance gaps 'directly constrain the near-term scalability' of ocean alkalinity enhancement.
2026-09-16 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2026-09-16verified
Google announced on 16 September 2026 its largest carbon removal purchase to date, agreeing to buy from Terradot 1 million tonnes of permanent CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering to be delivered by 2040 (plus 1 MtCO2e GWP20 of methane elimination by 2030) across more than 200,000 hectares of rice farms in southern Brazil.
2026-09-16 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-09-16verified
ClimeFi's first quarterly CDR Price Benchmark (16 September 2026), based on indicative supplier offers (not transacted prices) from more than 300 projects, found DACCS offer prices for 2030-vintage delivery 43% below 2026-vintage offers (from an average of about $800 to about $450 per tonne, per Carbon Pulse), while BECCS, other biomass removal, enhanced weathering and ex-situ mineralisation offer prices rise between the 2026 and 2030 vintages.
2026-09-16 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-16corrected
The UK Climate Change Committee advised on 16 September 2026 that Heathrow expansion can be consistent with UK carbon budgets and Net Zero only if the government legislates for the aviation industry to reach zero emissions by 2050 on a 'polluter pays' basis, in a pathway where industry-purchased engineered removals deliver 36% of the 2050 aviation emissions reduction (lower demand growth 24%, efficiency 20%, SAF 20%).
2026-09-16 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-09-16verified
Argus data (16 September 2026) showed technology-based CO2 removal credits contracted through long-term offtake agreements fell to about 6 million in January-August 2026 from 24 million a year earlier, with BECCS credits down to 2 million from 17 million and Microsoft's disclosed buying down to just over 2 million from 16.5 million, while biochar offtakes rose to nearly 3 million from 1.5 million.
2025 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
Occidental/1PointFive's STRATOS direct air capture plant in Ector County, Texas (500,000 tCO2 per year capacity) was set to launch operations by the end of 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Occidental/1PointFive's STRATOS direct air capture plant in Ector County, Texas…
2025 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
CarbonCapture Inc. paused development of Project Bison in Wyoming (original target 5 MtCO2 per year of direct air capture), relocating due to competition from data centers.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: CarbonCapture Inc. paused development of Project Bison in Wyoming (original target 5…
2025 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
The IEA estimated current direct air capture costs at USD 500 to 1,900 per tonne of CO₂, with costs potentially falling to around USD 300 per tonne by mid-century and some next-generation designs targeting USD 100 per tonne; BECCS costs are estimated at USD 40-50 per tonne in biorefineries and USD 95-120 per tonne for heat and power plants or pulp and paper mills.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: The IEA put direct air capture costs at $500-1,900 per tonne of CO2 (target $100-300),…
2025 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
Heirloom announced a $475 million investment in a direct air capture facility in northwest Louisiana, with 17,000 tCO2 per year in Phase 1 (2026) and 320,000 tCO2 per year at full build-out.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Heirloom announced a $475 million investment in a direct air capture facility in…
2025 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
Climeworks’ Mammoth plant in Iceland has a nameplate capacity of 36,000 tons of removal per year, but its collector containers were not operating as efficiently as prototype testing indicated.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: Climeworks' Mammoth direct air capture plant in Iceland (36,000 tCO2 per year nameplate…
2025 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03verified
CDR.fyi reported $2.3 billion of private direct air capture investment from 2021 to H1 2025, but only about 1,186 tonnes of DAC removal delivered out of 2.47 million tonnes contracted.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025: CDR.fyi reported $2.3 billion of private direct air capture investment from 2021 to H1…
2025 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
CDR.fyi's 2025 DAC market snapshot put operating direct air capture capacity at about 0.01 MtCO2 per year and total CCS capacity (all types) at 41 MtCO2 per year, versus roughly 10,000 MtCO2 per year needed.
2025-12 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2025-12-12verified
Microsoft agreed in December 2025 to buy 3.6 million tonnes of carbon removal from C2X via BECCS at a bioenergy/biofuels plant.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-12: Microsoft agreed in December 2025 to buy 3.6 million tonnes of carbon removal from C2X…
2025-08 · achievement · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
Deep Sky Alpha in Alberta recorded its first CO2 storage via direct air capture with Skyrenu in August 2025.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-08: Deep Sky Alpha in Alberta, Canada, the first cross-technology carbon removal center,…
2025-07 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2025-07-17verified
Microsoft agreed in July 2025 to buy 4.9 million tonnes of carbon removal from Vaulted Deep, which stores biomass waste geologically.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-07: Microsoft agreed in July 2025 to buy 4.9 million tonnes of carbon removal from Vaulted…
2025-04 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2025-04-11verified
Microsoft agreed in April 2025 to buy 3.7 million tonnes of carbon removal from CO280, based on CO2 capture at pulp/paper mills.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-04: Microsoft agreed in April 2025 to buy 3.7 million tonnes of carbon removal from CO280,…
2025-01 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2025-01-30verified
Microsoft signed a deal in January 2025 to buy 7 million tonnes of carbon removal credits from reforestation startup Chestnut Carbon.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-01: Microsoft signed a deal in January 2025 to buy 7 million tonnes of carbon removal…
2026-10-12 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-10-12verified
A peer-reviewed study in Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (Sellitto et al., published 12 October 2026), using simulated observations from the proposed CAIRT satellite concept, found that high-spectral-resolution mid-infrared limb-emission sounding could detect stratospheric aerosol injection SO2 releases within hours to a few days and quantify injections as small as a few hundred tonnes of SO2 per day (the scale of small outdoor experiments or near-term unilateral deployments), a monitoring capability that existing satellite instruments lack.
2026-10-01 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-10-01verified
A report published on 1 October 2026 by the ARIA-funded SAFEGEOGOV project (University of Leeds with Queen Mary University of London, Imperial College London and the Centre for Future Generations) found that in three multi-day SRM governance crisis simulations, in which 35 international academics, civil-society actors and practitioners role-played governments, institutions and companies, participants never reached an SRM governance agreement able to pass a two-thirds majority (simulations 1 and 2) or consensus (simulation 3), with 'strategic competition and state sovereignty' rather than climate concerns driving the negotiations.
2026-09-30 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-30verified
The European Commission published on 30 September 2026, and opened for submissions on 6 October 2026 (deadline 16 February 2027), a Horizon Europe call topic (HORIZON-BRIDGING-2027-04-11) offering about €10 million for one research and innovation project to build capabilities to detect, monitor, model and attribute solar radiation modification activities, including outdoor experiments and potential unilateral deployments, and to assess their impacts on climate and ecosystems, with SRM field experiments and technical SRM development explicitly out of scope; Bloomberg reported it as part of a €35 million Horizon tender.
2026-09-29 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-29verified
On 29 September 2026 the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero published a policy paper stating that the UK Government 'does not support the deployment of SRM and does not plan to do so' but supports responsible research into its risks and impacts, and summarising UK publicly funded SRM research, including ARIA's £56.8 million Exploring Climate Cooling programme (whose 5 announced small-scale field trials must have independent environmental impact and legal assessments published before any outdoor experiment) and a £10.5 million NERC modelling-only programme for 2025-2030.
2026-09-28 · announcement · ●○○ · published 2026-09-28verified
CarbonPlan released (28 September 2026) an open-source, globally consistent dataset of statistically downscaled (0.25°, daily) stratospheric aerosol injection climate simulations, covering 116 model simulations from two climate models (CESM2(WACCM6) and UKESM1.1) processed with two downscaling methods under the GeoMIP G6-1.5K-SAI deployment scenario, a termination-shock scenario, an SSP2-4.5 no-SAI baseline and the historical period, to let researchers study regional SAI impacts such as on crops, water and health.
2026-09-23 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2026-09-23corrected
The Degrees Initiative launched (23 September 2026) a $1.5 million coordinated global study, billed as the first of its kind, in which research teams across nine Global South regions plus China and the Global North will use shared data, protocols and climate scenarios with and without solar radiation modification (SRM) to model how warming and SRM could affect staple crops such as maize, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum.
2026-09-16 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2026-09-16verified
An Earth-system-model study posted for discussion on EGUsphere on 16 September 2026 (Tjiputra et al., not yet peer reviewed) found that tropical, Northern-Hemisphere and Southern-Hemisphere mid-latitude stratospheric aerosol injection all kept simulated overshoot warming below 2°C, but that deployment location strongly shapes side effects via the AMOC, and that legacy effects on sea-level rise and permafrost persist for centuries after SAI ends.
2025 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
Anti-geoengineering bills were introduced in 31 or more US states, according to SRM360's tracker.
2025-10-24 · announcement · ●●○ · published 2025-10-24verified
Solar geoengineering startup Stardust raised $60 million on 24 October 2025, the largest SRM fundraise to date, and planned stratospheric tests for April 2026.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-10-24: Solar geoengineering startup Stardust raised $60 million on 24 October 2025, the…
2025-09-09 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2025-09-09verified
On 9 September 2025, 42 polar scientists warned in Frontiers in Science that five polar geoengineering approaches are 'environmentally dangerous'.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-09-09: On 9 September 2025, 42 polar scientists warned in Frontiers in Science that five polar…
2025-07-01 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
Florida’s SB 56, effective 1 July 2025, prohibits certain acts intended to affect temperature, weather, or the intensity of sunlight within the state’s atmosphere.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-07-01: Florida's SB 56, signed into law and effective 1 July 2025, made geoengineering a…
2025-06-25 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2025-06-25verified
A NOAA study released on 25 June 2025 found that marine cloud brightening could unexpectedly impact the ozone layer.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-06-25: A NOAA study released on 25 June 2025 found that marine cloud brightening could…
2025-04-15 · policy · ●●○ · published 2025-04-15verified
On 15 April 2025 the US EPA demanded information under the Clean Air Act from Make Sunsets, a startup launching sulfur dioxide balloons for geoengineering.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-04-15: On 15 April 2025 the US EPA demanded information under the Clean Air Act from Make…
2025-03-24 · analysis · ●○○ · published 2025-03-24verified
A NOAA study released on 24 March 2025 found that stratospheric aerosol injection would also brighten marine clouds, enhancing its cooling by about 10%.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-03-24: A NOAA study released on 24 March 2025 found that stratospheric aerosol injection would…
2025-01 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
In January 2025, the Arctic Ice Project announced it was concluding its research and winding down after tests revealed potential risks to the Arctic food chain.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2025-01: The Arctic Ice Project shut down in January 2025 after SINTEF studies showed its…
2024 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-01-03corrected
In 2024, Tennessee enacted a law prohibiting intentional atmospheric releases within the state for the express purpose of affecting temperature, weather, or sunlight intensity.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2024: Tennessee banned sunlight modification (SB2691) in 2024.
2024-09 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-01-03legacy
The UK announced a £50 million geoengineering research programme in September 2024.
- 2026-10-16 · IPCC Chair Jim Skea suspended the IPCC's 65th plenary session in Addis Ababa on 16 October 2026 without agreement on the timelines for the t…
2026-10-15 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-10-15verified
On 15 October 2026 the Environment Agency declared severe drought, the highest drought status, for parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex after the driest April-September in over a century and an exceptionally hot summer with record temperatures, with 82% of England in drought and some reservoirs needing 120% of typical rainfall over six months to recover.
2026-10-15 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-10-15verified
The UN Convention on Biological Diversity's first global report on collective progress toward the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (State of Biodiversity Action, released 15 October 2026 ahead of COP17 in Yerevan) concluded the world remains off track for its 2030 nature targets, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that even if current national commitments are met only 26% of land and 12% of marine ecosystems would be protected by 2030, short of the 30% target.
- 2026-10-14 · The IEA Oil Market Report (14 October 2026) estimated that Gulf producers' crude oil exports rose by 4.4 mb/d to 13.9 mb/d in September 2026…
- 2026-10-14 · The European Commission formally proposed on 14 October 2026 a one-year postponement of the EU Methane Regulation's monitoring, reporting an…
2026-10-09 · setback · ●○○ · published 2026-10-13verified
In a federal court filing on 9 October 2026, the US Department of the Interior asked to have its 2023 approval of the construction and operations plan for Ørsted's 704 MW Revolution Wind offshore wind project remanded so it can reevaluate compliance with the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, although the project has supplied power to the New England grid since March 2026, installed its 65th and final turbine in September and aims for full output by end-2026; Interior said the filing was 'not announcing a policy change', and Judge Lamberth had not yet ruled.
- 2026-10-08 · NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026 kept an El Niño Advisory in force, reporting that El Niño stre…
2026-10-07 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07verified
WWF's Living Planet Report 2026 (7 October 2026) found that the Living Planet Index of 35,803 monitored populations of 5,790 vertebrate species declined by 73% on average over 1970-2022 (freshwater -85%, terrestrial -69%, marine -59%; Latin America and the Caribbean -95%), with habitat loss the most reported threat followed by overexploitation and climate change, while about half of monitored populations are stable or increasing.
2026-10-07 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07verified
The High Court of Australia on 7 October 2026 (MACH Energy Australia v Denman Aberdeen Muswellbrook Scone Healthy Environment Group, 3-2 majority) dismissed MACH Energy's appeal and held that the NSW Independent Planning Commission had to consider imposing conditions to minimise all greenhouse gas emissions of the Mount Pleasant coal mine extension, including the Scope 3 emissions from burning its exported coal overseas (about 870 MtCO2e over the extension to 2048), in the first High Court case on climate change and fossil fuel project approval; the decision turns on NSW law, so its direct effect elsewhere is limited.
2026-10-06 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-10-06verified
WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update (6 October 2026) forecast the October-December 2026 seasonal-average Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly at about +3.7°C, peaking around December, the highest since observations began versus the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015-January 2016, after the index rose from +1.6°C in June to +2.5°C in August, with a near-100% likelihood (consensus of 13 centres) that El Niño persists through February 2027.
2026-10-05 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-10-05corrected
The US Supreme Court heard oral argument on 5 October 2026 in Suncor Energy v. County Commissioners of Boulder County (No. 25-170), with Justice Alito not participating, on whether federal law preempts Boulder's state-law climate-damages suit against Suncor and ExxonMobil; several justices questioned whether the court has jurisdiction over the non-final Colorado Supreme Court ruling and, per a Sabin Center climate litigation fellow quoted by Carbon Brief, 'many of the justices were pushing back' on constitutional preemption; a 4-4 split would leave the Colorado ruling standing without national precedent, and a final decision is expected in the spring (the defendants told the court more than 60 municipalities have filed about three dozen similar suits).
2026-10-02 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-07verified
NSIDC's 7 October 2026 analysis confirmed that Antarctic sea ice reached its 2026 maximum on 14 September as the third-lowest maximum in the satellite record, after which extent declined sharply and from 2 October fell to record-low daily values for the date, surpassing 2023's records, with losses in the Ross and Amundsen seas and the Indian Ocean sector (while Arctic September 2026 average extent was 4.81 million km², 13th lowest).
2026-10-01 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-10-01verified
GLAMOS and the Swiss Academy of Sciences reported on 1 October 2026 that Swiss glaciers lost more than 5% of their ice volume in 2026, second only to the record year 2022 (with Allalin, Clariden, Aletsch and Rhône glaciers seeing their greatest melt on record), bringing the loss over the past five years to almost 20%, after a winter among the ten least snowy on record and a record 76 days with the freezing level above 4,000 m in May-September.
2026-10-01 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-10-01verified
A coalition of 26 US states, counties and cities led by New York Attorney General Letitia James petitioned the US Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on 1 October 2026 to overturn the EPA's September 2026 repeal of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards (greenhouse gas limits for coal- and gas-fired power plants, a sector producing about a quarter of US CO2 emissions), arguing the repeal was arbitrary and capricious, and also filed a notice of intent to sue the EPA for failing to regulate greenhouse gases from existing gas-fired plants.
2026-09-30 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-30verified
India Meteorological Department data reported on 30 September 2026 put India's June-September 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall at 759.4 mm, 87% of the long-period average (a 13% deficit), the fourth-lowest since 2001 and 13th-lowest since 1901, with June 35.4% and August 16.3% below normal, as IMD said strong El Niño conditions would keep strengthening through year-end and forecast below-normal (<85% of LPA) October rainfall.
2026-09-28 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-28corrected
The US Supreme Court clerk informed the parties on 28 September 2026 that Justice Samuel Alito will not participate in Suncor Energy v. County Commissioners of Boulder County (No. 25-170), the oil companies' bid, backed by the Trump administration, to have federal law preclude Boulder's state-law climate-damages suit against Suncor and ExxonMobil; the case, set for argument on 5 October 2026, could decide the fate of dozens of state and local climate lawsuits against fossil fuel companies.
- 2026-09-28 · NHTSA finalised on 28 September 2026 the SAFE Vehicles Rule III amending US CAFE standards for model years 2022-2031, which the US Transport…
- 2026-09-28 · Preliminary Kpler ship-tracking data reported by Reuters on 28 September 2026 showed crude oil exports from key Middle East producers reboun…
- 2026-09-28 · A European Commission spokesperson said on 28 September 2026 that the Commission plans to propose postponing the entry into force of the EU …
- 2026-09-25 · India's power ministry ordered on 25 September 2026, under the emergency provisions (Section 11) of the Electricity Act, 112 captive coal-fi…
2026-09-25 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-25verified
The WTO Dispute Settlement Body agreed on 25 September 2026 to Russia's second request to establish a dispute panel (DS639) to rule on whether the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) package and an alleged export subsidy through allowance allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System are consistent with WTO rules, with the EU saying both are WTO-consistent and 18 members, including China, India, the United States and the United Kingdom, reserving third-party rights.
2026-09-25 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-09-25verified
In a letter to EU energy ministers reported on 25 September 2026, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said the bloc faces 'a price crisis linking to a supply crisis' from the Iran war's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and urged governments to consider measures to sustain gas-storage injections or reduce gas and electricity demand (such as limiting temperatures in public buildings and switching off unnecessary public lighting) and to use flexibility to lower the gas-storage filling target to 80%, with EU gas storage about 70% full, 12 percentage points below a year earlier.
2026-09-23 · policy · ●●○ · published 2026-09-23verified
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 23 September 2026 that the United States, which provides around a quarter of the International Energy Agency's funding, will 'either reform the IEA or ... leave the IEA' if there is no alignment on climate issues, saying the agency should 'focus on its core mission' rather than 'scenarios that are more politically popular'.
2026-09-23 · data · ●○○ · published 2026-09-23verified
NASA and NSIDC reported (23 September 2026) that Arctic sea ice likely reached its 2026 annual minimum extent of 4.60 million km² on 12 September, tied with 2008, 2010 and 2025 for the 10th-lowest minimum in the roughly 48-year satellite record, with 2007-2026 producing the 20 lowest minima but no significant decline in September minimum extent over the past two decades.
2026-09-23 · projection · ●●○ · published 2026-09-23verified
The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab projected (23 September 2026) that heat during the first nine months (June 2026-February 2027) of the current 'super El Niño' will cause about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide compared with a typical year, concentrated in the Global South, including 66,800 across the Sahel (31,400 in Nigeria) over the following six months.
2026-09-21 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-09-21verified
The Planetary Health Check 2026 (PIK-led, released 21 September 2026) found that seven of the nine planetary boundaries (climate change, biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater change, biogeochemical flows, novel entities and ocean acidification) are transgressed and all seven show worsening trends, while atmospheric aerosol loading (improving) and stratospheric ozone (stable) remain within the safe operating space.
2026-09-21 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-21verified
A Carbon Brief analysis (21 September 2026) found that the daily Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly, calculated with NOAA's ONI convention (centred 30-year climatology), reached 3.11°C on 21 September 2026, surpassing the previous daily record of 3.08°C set on 18 November 2015, with the August 2026 monthly anomaly (about 2.45°C) already above the peak of every prior El Niño on record except 2015-16 (2.75°C) and 1877-78 (about 2.7°C, reconstructed).
2026-09-17 · analysis · ●●○ · published 2026-09-17verified
A World Weather Attribution study (17 September 2026) of the 26 August 2026 Rasuwa rock-ice avalanche and flood on the Nepal-China border (over 1,300 confirmed deaths and over 5,000 missing in Nepal) found that human-caused warming of about 1.5°C in July-August temperatures at the site (about 2°C annually) likely weakened the slope through permafrost degradation and glacier thinning, without attributing the specific collapse, and concluded the event exceeded the limits of adaptation.
2026-09-16 · policy · ●○○ · published 2026-09-16verified
In her 16 September 2026 State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced an EU 'Climate Insurance Alliance' to close the climate-catastrophe insurance gap, noting only around 25% of catastrophe losses in Europe are covered by private insurance, and said imported fossil fuels had cost the EU an additional €90 billion since the start of the Hormuz conflict.
2026-09-14 · data · ●●○ · published 2026-09-23verified
Preliminary NSIDC data (23 September 2026) indicate that Antarctic sea ice most likely reached its 2026 winter maximum extent of 17.59 million km² on 14 September, which if confirmed would be the third-lowest Antarctic maximum in the roughly 48-year satellite record, after Antarctic extent in July and August 2026 ranked fifth- and fourth-lowest on record for those months (per KOPRI researcher Clare Eayrs, cited by Carbon Brief).
- 2026-04-21 · Ember's Global Electricity Review 2026 (21 April 2026) found that renewables (33.8% share, 10,730 TWh) overtook coal (33.0%, 10,476 TWh) in …
2026-01-02 · setback · ●●○ · published 2026-01-02verified
On 2 January 2026 Ørsted filed a legal challenge against the Trump administration's halt of its $5 billion Revolution Wind offshore wind project.
↳ corrects (or adds sources to) an earlier record: 2026-01-02: On 2 January 2026 Ørsted filed a legal challenge against the Trump administration's…
- 2025 · Ember found that EV sales shares in Vietnam (~40%), Thailand (>20%) and Indonesia (15%) now exceed EV penetration in the US and Japan.
- 2024 · IEA Coal 2024 reported that global coal demand hit a record 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, while projecting that demand has plateaued as renewa…
- 2024 · According to the IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025, China installed 357.3 GW of solar PV in 2024, about 60% of the global total.