Five Grand Endeavors — pilot-2025

Tracking humanity's progress in five grand endeavors — our biggest ongoing R&D projects.
Period page pilot-2025: the ledger as of the period's cutoff 2026-01-14, frozen. → live dashboard
Reconstructed on 2026-10-02, after this period's bulletins were written. It shows what was public by the cutoff as the ledger knows it now: later corrections of then-public facts are included, and some assessments were written retrospectively. It can therefore differ from the bulletins.

Science has a communication problem. It reports isolated discoveries (with applications often more of an afterthought), not progress towards the big outcomes. Thus, every week, we publish a newsletter updating humanity on the progress of science towards such outcomes — just as a company would report its progress to its board.

Scientific research is valuable even to its own end, but is largely expected to be the engine of material abundance. We track the needle on five Grand Endeavors that humanity has pursued for all its existence and that will also determine the quality of life for the next 100 years.

Each of the endeavors has a KPI assigned, as well as some key milestones and open challenges we need to solve. All of these may update and evolve over time, and are on purpose somewhat opinionated — they capture the current consensus rather than all perspectives. If the top experts' consensus shifts, we will shift. And we will report also on major progress of alternative approaches in each given area.

How to read this page

Each endeavor has a KPI (the needle we watch), a milestone countdown (concrete, checkable events) and open challenges (the problems standing in the way). Click any line to expand its detail: the precise criteria, the current assessment and its reasoning, and the evidence.

Status (KPIs and milestones), per the status rubric:

  • green: on track or ahead
  • yellow: progressing, behind pace
  • red: off track, stalled or distant
  • achieved: achieved (milestones)
  • unknown: unassessed: the rubric cannot judge it yet
  • not yet assessed

A KPI's status is its pace toward the goal versus the pace the goal needs, not its level. A milestone's status is its evidence-based ETA. A status changes only on newer evidence.

Everything shown comes from an append-only ledger of verified facts, each with its sources and the date it became public. verified / corrected: checked against the source at intake. legacy: converted from the first (2025) pilot report, not verified at ingest. “As of” means only what was public by that date is included.

Robots and Automation

Humans have been looking to automate their lives in one way or another for most of their existence. From early domesticated animals to microwave ovens and freighter ships, automation adds a huge multiplier on human labor — we can either do more with our time, or spend less time working. The current frontier is automating intelligence — the software (AI) and the hardware (robots).

Software

KPI: 80-percentile METR task length equivalent (Human-hours)
Now: —Exponential improvement continuing · assessed 2026-01-04
no required KPI metric in the registry yet
metr-50-horizon-by-release
—
no data yet
min · irregular
metr-50-horizon-frontier
288.9 min
obs 2025-11 · known 2026-01-04 · sourcelegacy
irregular releases (no schedule)
metr-80-horizon-by-release
—
no data yet
min · irregular

Assessment

Exponential improvement continuing (green, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
The best 80% METR time horizon reached 32.3 min (GPT-5.1-Codex-Max, Nov 2025), growing at a ~7-month doubling rate long-run and possibly ~4 months in 2024–2025. Caveat: METR's RCT found experienced developers 19% slower with AI tools, so benchmark gains do not yet translate to real-world productivity.
by migration:pilot-2025/robots-software.md · 6 evidence event(s)

Cited evidence (6)

  • 2025-11 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    METR's benchmark results as of November 2025 give the highest 80%-success time horizon to GPT-5.1-Codex-Max at 32.3 minutes (50% horizon 173.3 min, avg score 0.721) and the highest 50%-success time horizon to Claude Opus 4.5 at 288.9 minutes (~5 hours; 80% horizon 27.2 min, avg score 0.750).
  • 2025-03-19 · data · ●●● · known 2025-03-19legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-03-19-metr-long-tasks-doubling-rv
    METR's March 2025 study 'Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks' finds the length of software tasks AI agents can complete autonomously doubling about every 7 months over the long run (about every 4 months in 2024–2025), a roughly 5,000× improvement since 2019.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    METR's benchmark data put the frontier 80%-success task time horizon at about 0.006 min (2019, GPT-2), 0.03 min (2020, GPT-3), 0.17 min (2022, GPT-3.5), 0.97 min (2023, GPT-4), 1.68 min (2024-Q1), 4.60 min (2024-Q3), 15.2 min (2025-Q1), 26.6 min (2025-Q3) and 32.3 min (2025-Q4).
  • 2025-08 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    In METR's benchmark results, GPT-5 (released Aug 2025) has an 80%-success time horizon of 26.6 minutes and a 50%-success horizon of 137.7 minutes (avg score 0.698).
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    Claude Opus 4.5 holds the state of the art on SWE-bench Verified as of November 2025 with 80.9% of issues resolved.
  • 2025-07-10 · setback · ●●● · known 2025-07-10legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-07-10-metr-rct-devs-19pct-slower-rv
    METR's randomized controlled trial (July 2025) found experienced open-source developers were 19% slower when using early-2025 AI tools, despite believing they were 20% faster.

Other events (6)

  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Per the SWE-bench leaderboard, top SWE-bench Verified scores rose from 1.1% (Mar 2024, GPT-4 baseline) to 18.7% (Jun 2024, Claude 3.5 Sonnet), 29.6% (Oct 2024, Claude 3.5 Sonnet new), 70.3% (Feb 2025, Claude 3.7 Sonnet), 74.9% (Aug 2025, GPT-5) and 80.9% (Nov 2025, Claude Opus 4.5).
  • 2025-07-10 · setback · ●●● · known 2025-07-10verified
    METR's randomized controlled trial (July 2025) found experienced open-source developers were 19% slower when using early-2025 AI tools, despite believing they were 20% faster.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-10-metr-rct-devs-19pct-slower
  • 2025-06 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    In METR's benchmark results, Gemini 2.5 Pro (released Jun 2025) has an 80%-success time horizon of 9.3 minutes and a 50%-success horizon of 39.5 minutes (avg score 0.558).
  • 2025-05 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    In METR's benchmark results, Claude 4 Opus (released May 2025) has an 80%-success time horizon of 20.9 minutes and a 50%-success horizon of 85.6 minutes (avg score 0.649).
  • 2025-04 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    In METR's benchmark results, OpenAI o3 (released Apr 2025) has an 80%-success time horizon of 21.4 minutes and a 50%-success horizon of 94.0 minutes (avg score 0.659).
  • 2025-03-19 · data · ●●● · known 2025-03-19corrected
    METR’s March 2025 study found the length of software tasks AI agents can complete autonomously has doubled about every seven months over the preceding six years.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-19-metr-long-tasks-doubling

Milestone Countdown

  • The Linux Kernel Patch: An AI-submitted large (10k+ lines diff) patch to the Linux Kernel (or equivalent critical infra) is accepted by maintainers.Distant · assessed 2026-01-04 · 15 event(s)
    Distant (red, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    The largest confirmed AI-generated patch merged into Linux is ~50 lines (in 6.15, undisclosed and buggy), 200× short of the 10k-line target. Major projects (Gentoo, NetBSD, Git, QEMU) ban or restrict AI code, and AI is adopted only in auxiliary maintenance roles.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-software.md · 7 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (7)

    • 2025-06 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-06-01-lwn-llm-patch-merged-615-rv
      LWN revealed in June 2025 that a ~50-line patch entirely generated by an LLM had been merged into Linux 6.15 without AI disclosure; the largest confirmed AI-generated kernel patch, it contained a bug and sparked controversy.
    • 2024-04 · policy · ●●○ · known 2024-04-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2024-04-01-gentoo-bans-ai-code-rv
      Gentoo banned AI-generated code contributions in April 2024, the first major open-source project to do so.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] Gentoo Council AI policy
    • 2025 · policy · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
      NetBSD banned the use of AI tools to generate code submitted to the project.
    • 2025 · policy · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-qemu-prohibits-ai-code-rv
      QEMU's contribution guidelines prohibit AI-generated code in patch submissions.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] QEMU wiki: SubmitAPatch
    • 2025 · setback · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
      The Git project rejected AI-generated patches submitted to its mailing list.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] Git mailing list archive
    • 2025-12 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-12-01-torvalds-ai-maintenance-rv
      Linus Torvalds said in December 2025 he is a 'huge believer' in AI, but for maintaining Linux code rather than writing it.
    • 2025-07 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2025-07-31legacycited as evidence
      LWN reported in July 2025 that the Linux kernel's AUTOSEL system uses LLMs to select patches for stable-kernel backporting.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] LWN: AUTOSEL

    Other events (8)

    • 2025 · policy · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      QEMU's contribution guidelines prohibit AI-generated code in patch submissions.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] QEMU wiki: SubmitAPatch
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-qemu-prohibits-ai-code
    • 2025 · setback · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      FreeBSD rejected an exFAT code contribution over license contamination concerns from LLM generation.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] FreeBSD mailing lists
    • 2025-12 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-09verified
      Linus Torvalds said in December 2025 he is a 'huge believer' in AI, but for maintaining Linux code rather than writing it.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-torvalds-ai-maintenance
    • 2025-12-17 · policy · ●○○ · known 2025-12-17corrected
      LLVM published an RFC for a “human in the loop” AI tool policy for contributions on December 17, 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-llvm-human-in-the-loop-ai-policy
    • 2025-11-05 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-11-05legacy
      Dave Hansen proposed TAB-authored 'generated-content.rst' guidelines for tool-generated contributions to the Linux kernel on LKML in November 2025.
    • 2025-07-25 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2025-07-25legacy
      Kernel developer Sasha Levin posted an RFC on LKML (July 2025) proposing CLAUDE.md/Copilot configuration files for AI coding assistants in the Linux kernel tree.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] LKML: Sasha Levin RFC
    • 2025-06 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-06-26corrected
      LWN reported in June 2025 that a patch merged for Linux 6.15 had been entirely written by an LLM and was posted without disclosure.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-06-01-lwn-llm-patch-merged-615
    • 2024-04 · policy · ●●○ · known 2024-04-25corrected
      Gentoo’s project council adopted a policy barring AI tools from contributions to Gentoo projects in April 2024.
      The Linux Kernel Patch [1] Gentoo Council AI policy
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-04-01-gentoo-bans-ai-code
  • The Nature Author: An AI-generated research paper is accepted by a top-tier journal (Nature/Science) with AI credited as primary author.Distant (structurally blocked) · assessed 2026-01-04 · 9 event(s)
    Distant (structurally blocked) (red, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    All major journals (Nature, Science, Cell, JAMA/Lancet/BMJ) prohibit AI authorship, so the barrier is policy and accountability rather than capability. The closest approach, Sakana AI Scientist-v2's ICLR workshop paper, was accepted and then withdrawn.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-software.md · 5 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (5)

    • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-journals-prohibit-ai-authorship-rv
      Nature Portfolio ('LLMs do not currently satisfy our authorship criteria'), Science/AAAS ('AI tools cannot be authors'), Cell Press and JAMA/Lancet/BMJ (following ICMJE accountability rules) all prohibit crediting AI as a paper author.
    • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-04-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-03-12-sakana-ai-scientist-v2-iclr-workshop-rv
      A paper generated by Sakana AI's AI Scientist-v2 was accepted at an ICLR workshop in April 2025, the first fully AI-generated paper to pass peer review.
    • 2025-04 · retraction · ●●○ · known 2025-04-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-03-12-sakana-ai-scientist-v2-withdrawn-rv
      Sakana AI withdrew its AI Scientist-v2 paper accepted at an ICLR workshop (April 2025), per a prior ethical agreement with the organizers.
      ↳ retraction of 2025-04-01-sakana-ai-scientist-v2-iclr-workshop (superseded by 2025-03-12-sakana-ai-scientist-v2-iclr-workshop-rv)
    • 2025-09 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-09-30legacycited as evidence
      A publisher analysis reported by Science (Sep 2025) found 36% of cancer-paper abstracts were AI-generated while only 9% of authors disclosed AI use.
    • 2024-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2024-10-31legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2024-10-09-nobel-chemistry-alphafold2-rv
      The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry recognized AlphaFold2, with the prize awarded to its human creators Demis Hassabis and John Jumper rather than to the AI.

    Other events (4)

  • The $10M Solopreneur: A single-person company reaches $10M ARR with <10 hours/week human oversight.Approaching · assessed 2026-01-04 · 8 event(s)
    Approaching (yellow, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    No verified case meets the strict criteria (solo founder, $10M ARR, <10 hrs/week oversight); Magnific AI is at $10M ARR with 2 people and several AI-heavy solo founders are at ~$3M ARR. Current examples show AI as a coding accelerator, not an autonomous business operator.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-software.md · 5 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (5)

    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
      tinyteams.xyz lists BuiltWith (Gary Brewer, 1 person, largely pre-AI) at $14M/year revenue, the AI-heavy Magnific AI at $10M ARR with 2 people, and HeadshotPro at $3M ARR with 1 person.
      The $10M Solopreneur [1] tinyteams.xyz
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-pieter-levels-3m-arr-rv
      Solo founder Pieter Levels (PhotoAI, NomadList) runs AI-heavy businesses at about $3.1M ARR with a one-person team, per an interview with John Collison.
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-base44-solo-80m-exit-rv
      Base44, a one-person startup by Maor Shlomo built with Cursor, reached $3.5M ARR and was sold in an $80M exit.
    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-openview-ai-native-8x-10m-arr-rv
      Kyle Poyar/OpenView research finds AI-native startups are 8× more likely to reach $10M ARR within 12 months.
    • 2025-02-17 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-02-17legacycited as evidence
      Solo-founded startups rose from 22% of new US startups in 2015 to 38% in 2024, per Forbes ('The Future is Solo', Feb 2025).
      The $10M Solopreneur [1] Forbes: The Future is Solo

    Other events (3)

Major Open Challenges (assuming "LLMs are enough" hypothesis)

  • Reliability: Reducing hallucinations and error compounding in long chains of reasoning.9 event(s)

    Events (9)

    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Gemini-2.0-Flash (0.7%) and o3-mini-high (0.8%) became the first models to reach sub-1% hallucination rates on a hallucination benchmark.
    • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      OpenAI's o3 reasoning model hallucinates on 33% of PersonQA questions, double o1's 16%.
    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-30verified
      NewsGuard's measured AI hallucination rate rose from 18% in 2024 to 35% in 2025, per Forbes.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-newsguard-hallucination-35pct
    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-03-06verified
      A Columbia Journalism Review comparison of eight AI search engines found Perplexity answered 37% of queries incorrectly while Grok 3 answered 94% incorrectly.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-cjr-ai-search-citation-errors
    • 2025-09 · analysis · ●●● · known 2025-09-30legacy
      OpenAI research (Sep 2025) attributes hallucinations to accuracy-based benchmarks penalizing abstention, showing gpt-5-thinking-mini abstaining 52% with a 26% error rate versus o4-mini abstaining 1% with a 75% error rate.
    • 2025-08-18 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-08-18corrected
      An August 2025 Fortune report on MIT NANDA research said 95% of companies’ generative-AI implementations fell short, while about 5% of pilots achieved rapid revenue acceleration.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-08-18-mit-95pct-genai-pilots-fail
    • 2025-07-10 · setback · ●●● · known 2025-07-10verified
      METR's randomized controlled trial (July 2025) found experienced open-source developers were 19% slower when using early-2025 AI tools, despite believing they were 20% faster.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-10-metr-rct-devs-19pct-slower
    • 2025-03 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-03-27verified
      Anthropic's 'Tracing the Thoughts of a Large Language Model' (Mar 2025) mapped Claude's internal circuits, finding a default-on refusal circuit that a 'known entity' feature can wrongly suppress, causing hallucinations, and showing it can detect when Claude fabricates reasoning versus reasoning faithfully.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-01-anthropic-tracing-thoughts-hallucination-circuits
  • Agency: Robust goal decomposition and self-correction over long time horizons.8 event(s)

    Events (8)

    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Per the SWE-bench leaderboard, top SWE-bench Verified scores rose from 1.1% (Mar 2024, GPT-4 baseline) to 18.7% (Jun 2024, Claude 3.5 Sonnet), 29.6% (Oct 2024, Claude 3.5 Sonnet new), 70.3% (Feb 2025, Claude 3.7 Sonnet), 74.9% (Aug 2025, GPT-5) and 80.9% (Nov 2025, Claude Opus 4.5).
    • 2025-12 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-12-16corrected
      Simular’s Agent S scored 72.6% on the OSWorld benchmark in December 2025, exceeding the human baseline of 72.36%.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-simular-agent-s-osworld-beats-human
    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-11-05verified
      McKinsey's State of AI 2025 survey finds 62% of organizations are experimenting with AI agents.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-mckinsey-62pct-experimenting-agents
    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2025-07-08verified
      An analysis published on Daniel Kang's (ddkang) Substack found 8 of 10 popular AI agent benchmarks have severe reliability issues.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ddkang-agent-benchmarks-broken
    • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Claude Opus 4.5 holds the state of the art on SWE-bench Verified as of November 2025 with 80.9% of issues resolved.
    • 2025-05 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-05-31legacy
      The HPlan 2025 benchmark study found LLMs produce only 3% correct plans on hierarchical (HTN) planning tasks and 0% correct long-horizon task decompositions.
    • 2025-01 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-01-23verified
      OpenAI launched Operator in January 2025, powered by its Computer-Using Agent (GPT-4o plus reinforcement learning for GUI use), which scored 58.1% on the WebArena browsing benchmark versus a 78.2% human baseline.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-openai-operator-cua
    • 2024-10 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2024-10-31legacy
      An analysis of SWE-bench agent patches (arXiv 2410.06992) found that of solutions passing tests (38%), none (0%) were mergeable pull requests.
  • Continuous Learning: Universal mechanism for rapidly adjusting long-term behavior based on past experiences.5 event(s)

    Events (5)

    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      McKinsey's State of AI 2025 is cited for ChatGPT memory being on by default for 88% of organizations using AI.
    • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-04corrected
      Google Research introduced Titans and the MIRAS framework; Titans can scale to context windows larger than 2 million tokens.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-google-titans-miras-memory
    • 2025-12-30 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2025-12-30corrected
      Sebastian Raschka’s “State of LLMs 2025” (published Dec. 30, 2025) found no new or substantial breakthrough in continual learning.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-raschka-no-continual-learning-breakthrough
    • 2025-09 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-09-30legacy
      Research on the Maximum Effective Context Window (arXiv 2509.21361) found LLMs' effective context far below advertised limits, with degradation at about 1,000 tokens on some tasks.
    • 2025-01 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-01-22verified
      DeepSeek released R1 in January 2025, an open-source reasoning model whose technical report showed reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) removing the human-labeling bottleneck for verifiable domains.
      Continuous LearningBeyond the framework [1] DeepSeek-R1 technical report
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-deepseek-r1-rlvr
  • Novelty: Consistently producing original connections beyond interpolations of existing knowledge.9 event(s)

    Events (9)

    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Terence Tao commented that AlphaEvolve exploits loopholes in problem specifications, calling it 'very bright, but very amoral'.
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Axiom Math and Meta researchers used neural networks to find Lyapunov functions, solving a 130-year-old open problem dating to Poincaré (1892).
    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Redis creator antirez wrote that in 2025 'finally almost everybody stopped saying' LLMs are stochastic parrots.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-antirez-stochastic-parrots
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Google DeepMind's AlphaEvolve found a new lower bound for the 11-dimensional kissing number problem and a 4×4 complex matrix multiplication algorithm beating Strassen's 1969 method, the first improvement in 56 years.
    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      More than 75 AI-derived drug molecules were in clinical trials by mid-2025 (vs ~0 in 2020), with AI-native biotechs showing 80–90% Phase I success rates versus an industry average of 40–65%.
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-07-25verified
      Princeton's Goedel-Prover-V2 reached 90% on the miniF2F formal theorem-proving benchmark.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-goedel-prover-v2-minif2f-90
    • 2025-11-03 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2025-11-03corrected
      The New Yorker's 'The Case That A.I. Is Thinking' (Nov 3, 2025) argued only the most hardcore skeptics can deny AI systems are doing things many didn't think would be achieved.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-10-new-yorker-ai-thinking
    • 2025-09 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2025-09-25verified
      Wharton research (Sep 2025) found AI raises the baseline quality of ideas but reduces their diversity when used in early ideation.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-01-wharton-ai-creativity-diversity
    • 2025-07 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-07-21corrected
      AI mathematics: In July 2025 Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think achieved gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad, scoring 35/42 points with natural-language proofs.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-01-gemini-deep-think-imo-gold
Beyond the framework: 9 event(s)
  • 2026-01-04 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    ARIA's David Dalrymple warned (Guardian, Jan 2026) that the world 'may not have time to get ahead of' AI safety risks.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2026-01-04-dalrymple-no-time-for-safety
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    AI startups raised $150 billion in venture funding in 2025, surpassing the 2021 record of $92B, per PitchBook's Q4 2025 analyst note.
  • 2025-12 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacy
    The UK AI Security Institute reported in December 2025 that frontier model capabilities are doubling every 8 months in some domains and that self-replication success exceeded 60% in controlled tests.
  • 2025 · projection · ●○○ · known 2025-10-16corrected
    Second Talent said the AI code generation market was valued at $4.91 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $30.1 billion by 2032, growing at a 27.1% CAGR.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ai-coding-market-30b-2032
  • 2025 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2025-07-17verified
    The Future of Life Institute's AI Safety Index (Summer 2025) gave most frontier AI labs D–F grades on safety frameworks, concluding 'self-regulation simply isn't working'.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-fli-safety-index-d-f
  • 2025-11-26 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-19corrected
    Sundar Pichai said on November 26, 2025 that more than 25% of Google’s new code was written by AI.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-google-25pct-code-ai
  • 2025-11-13 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-13verified
    AI coding startup Cursor raised $2.3B at a $29.3B valuation in November 2025 and crossed $1B in annualized revenue.
    Beyond the framework [1] CNBC: Cursor funding round
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-13-cursor-2-3b-raise-1b-arr
  • 2025-01 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-01-22verified
    DeepSeek released R1 in January 2025, an open-source reasoning model whose technical report showed reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) removing the human-labeling bottleneck for verifiable domains.
    Continuous LearningBeyond the framework [1] DeepSeek-R1 technical report
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-deepseek-r1-rlvr
  • 2025-01-01 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
    The Stack Overflow 2025 Developer Survey found 84% of developers use or plan to use AI tools and 60% have favorable sentiment toward them.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-stack-overflow-2025-ai-adoption-sentiment
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 67)
  • 2026-01-04 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    ARIA's David Dalrymple warned (Guardian, Jan 2026) that the world 'may not have time to get ahead of' AI safety risks.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2026-01-04-dalrymple-no-time-for-safety
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Axiom Math and Meta researchers used neural networks to find Lyapunov functions, solving a 130-year-old open problem dating to Poincaré (1892).
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Google DeepMind's AlphaEvolve found a new lower bound for the 11-dimensional kissing number problem and a 4×4 complex matrix multiplication algorithm beating Strassen's 1969 method, the first improvement in 56 years.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    tinyteams.xyz lists BuiltWith (Gary Brewer, 1 person, largely pre-AI) at $14M/year revenue, the AI-heavy Magnific AI at $10M ARR with 2 people, and HeadshotPro at $3M ARR with 1 person.
    The $10M Solopreneur [1] tinyteams.xyz
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Per the SWE-bench leaderboard, top SWE-bench Verified scores rose from 1.1% (Mar 2024, GPT-4 baseline) to 18.7% (Jun 2024, Claude 3.5 Sonnet), 29.6% (Oct 2024, Claude 3.5 Sonnet new), 70.3% (Feb 2025, Claude 3.7 Sonnet), 74.9% (Aug 2025, GPT-5) and 80.9% (Nov 2025, Claude Opus 4.5).
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Gemini-2.0-Flash (0.7%) and o3-mini-high (0.8%) became the first models to reach sub-1% hallucination rates on a hallucination benchmark.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    AI startups raised $150 billion in venture funding in 2025, surpassing the 2021 record of $92B, per PitchBook's Q4 2025 analyst note.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    OpenAI's o3 reasoning model hallucinates on 33% of PersonQA questions, double o1's 16%.

Hardware

KPI: Largest Active Commercial Fleet of General-Purpose Humanoids (Single Site)
Now: —Exponential growth; fleets still small · assessed 2026-01-04
no metrics registered yet (metrics/robots-hardware.csv)

Assessment

Exponential growth; fleets still small (yellow, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
Humanoids crossed from pilot to commercial deployment in 2025: Agility Digit at GXO moved 100,000+ totes and Figure 02 completed an 11-month BMW run. But single-site fleets remain small (2–10 units typical) and Tesla abandoned its 5,000 Optimus target; the report's summary table rates the KPI 🟡.
by migration:pilot-2025/robots-hardware.md · 6 evidence event(s)

Cited evidence (6)

  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-11-01-digit-100k-totes-gxo-rv
    Agility Robotics reported that its Digit humanoids at GXO Logistics had moved more than 100,000 totes in commercial production as of November 2025, running about 4 hours per battery with autonomous docking.
    KPIThe "Blue Collar" Shift [1] Agility: Digit moves over 100K totes
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-digit-gxo-raas-deployment-rv
    As of 2025, Agility Robotics' Digit humanoid is commercially deployed at GXO Logistics' Flowery Branch, Georgia warehouse under a robots-as-a-service agreement, with the exact single-site fleet size undisclosed (estimated at 2–5 units).
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-figure-02-bmw-production-run-rv
    Figure AI completed an 11-month production deployment of Figure 02 humanoids at BMW's Spartanburg, South Carolina plant, working 10-hour shifts Monday–Friday for 1,250+ hours, handling 90,000+ parts and contributing to 30,000+ vehicles, with support staff required.
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-13legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-ubtech-walker-s2-500-units-contracted-rv
    UBTech has contracted more than 500 Walker S2 humanoid robots for deployment in Chinese factories including those of BYD, Volkswagen and Audi.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-tesla-optimus-5000-target-abandoned-rv
    Tesla abandoned its target of producing 5,000 Optimus humanoid robots in 2025 and temporarily halted Optimus mass production, keeping Optimus in internal pilot testing at its factories.
  • 2025-04-30 · projection · ●●○ · known 2025-04-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-04-30-bofa-humanoid-mass-adoption-2028-rv
    Bank of America projected in an April 2025 report that mass adoption of humanoid robots will start in 2028.

Other events (10)

  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Tracxn data put total humanoid robot sector VC funding in 2025 at about $1.71 billion, an 81% increase over 2024.
    Beyond the frameworkKPI [1] Tracxn: Humanoid robot startups
  • 2025 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    Tesla abandoned its target of producing 5,000 Optimus humanoid robots in 2025 and temporarily halted Optimus mass production, keeping Optimus in internal pilot testing at its factories.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-tesla-optimus-5000-target-abandoned
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    Figure AI completed an 11-month production deployment of Figure 02 humanoids at BMW's Spartanburg, South Carolina plant, working 10-hour shifts Monday–Friday for 1,250+ hours, handling 90,000+ parts and contributing to 30,000+ vehicles, with support staff required.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-figure-02-bmw-production-run
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    As of 2025, Agility Robotics' Digit humanoid is commercially deployed at GXO Logistics' Flowery Branch, Georgia warehouse under a robots-as-a-service agreement, with the exact single-site fleet size undisclosed (estimated at 2–5 units).
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-digit-gxo-raas-deployment
  • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Mercedes-Benz is testing Apptronik's Apollo humanoid robot for intralogistics tasks at its Berlin plant.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-apptronik-apollo-mercedes-testing
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Agility Robotics and Mercado Libre announced a commercial agreement to deploy Digit humanoids for commerce fulfillment at Mercado Libre's San Antonio, Texas site.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-agility-mercado-libre-agreement
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-13verified
    UBTech has contracted more than 500 Walker S2 humanoid robots for deployment in Chinese factories including those of BYD, Volkswagen and Audi.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ubtech-walker-s2-500-units-contracted
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    Agility Robotics reported that its Digit humanoids at GXO Logistics had moved more than 100,000 totes in commercial production as of November 2025, running about 4 hours per battery with autonomous docking.
    KPIThe "Blue Collar" Shift [1] Agility: Digit moves over 100K totes
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-digit-100k-totes-gxo
  • 2025-07-03 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-07-03corrected
    Hyundai’s Georgia plant was reported to plan Atlas deployment from October 2025; Atlas was speculated to cost around $150,000 or more.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-03-hyundai-georgia-atlas-from-october
  • 2025-04-30 · projection · ●●○ · known 2025-04-30verified
    Bank of America projected in an April 2025 report that mass adoption of humanoid robots will start in 2028.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-30-bofa-humanoid-mass-adoption-2028

Milestone Countdown

  • Robotaxi Saturation: Autonomous robotaxis outnumber human-driven taxis in a major metropolitan area (L5 Transport Solved).Approaching, not yet achieved · assessed 2026-01-04 · 21 event(s)
    Approaching, not yet achieved (yellow, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    San Francisco is closest with robotaxis at ~50% of licensed taxis, and Waymo reached 450,000+ weekly rides, but Uber/Lyft still dominate and including rideshare robotaxis are <5% everywhere. All deployments are geofenced L4.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-hardware.md · 7 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (7)

    Other events (14)

    • 2025-12 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-12-22legacy
      Zoox operated a robotaxi fleet of about 50 vehicles in San Francisco and Las Vegas as of December 2025.
    • 2025-12 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-06verified
      A Baidu Apollo Go robotaxi caused an accident in Zhengzhou, China in December 2025 that left two people in intensive care.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-baidu-robotaxi-zhengzhou-accident
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-11-18verified
      Tesla's robotaxi service remained a pilot in Austin, Texas with roughly 30–50 vehicles in 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-tesla-robotaxi-austin-pilot
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-11-06corrected
      Pony.ai reported a combined fleet exceeding 720 fully driverless commercial robotaxis across China's four tier-1 cities; it launched Gen-7 robotaxis in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-pony-ai-fleet-720
    • 2025-11 · setback · ●○○ · known 2025-12-10verified
      A Waymo robotaxi killed a dog in November 2025, the company's second animal fatality in two months.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-waymo-robotaxi-kills-dog
    • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-30verified
      Waymo launched robotaxi freeway operations for riders in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix in November 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-waymo-freeway-operations
    • 2025-11 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-11-13verified
      Baidu's Apollo Go robotaxi service was providing more than 250,000 rides per week as of November 2025, operating in 22 cities globally with 1,000+ vehicles in Wuhan.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-baidu-apollo-go-weekly-rides
    • 2025-10 · setback · ●○○ · known 2025-12-10verified
      A Waymo robotaxi killed a cat in October 2025, raising questions about its sensor detection.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-waymo-robotaxi-kills-cat
    • 2025-10 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-11-20verified
      Pony.ai received its first city-wide robotaxi permit, covering all of Shenzhen, in October 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-pony-ai-shenzhen-citywide-permit
    • 2025-07 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31verified
      Waymo's robotaxi fleet reached 100 million fully autonomous miles in July 2025.
      Robotaxi Saturation [1] Waymo 2025 Year in Review
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-01-waymo-100m-autonomous-miles
    • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-10legacy
      Waymo reached 250,000 paid robotaxi rides per week (about 1 million per month) in April 2025.
    • 2025-03 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-03-04verified
      Waymo and Uber launched robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas in March 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-01-waymo-uber-austin-launch
    • 2024-12 · setback · ●●● · known 2024-12-11corrected
      In December 2024, General Motors stopped funding Cruise, shifting autonomous-vehicle work toward driver-assistance systems and ending funding for autonomous taxis.
      ↳ followup of 2023-10-01-cruise-pedestrian-dragging (superseded by 2023-10-01-cruise-pedestrian-dragging-rv)
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-12-01-gm-shuts-down-cruise
    • 2023-10 · setback · ●●○ · known 2023-11-08verified
      In October 2023 a GM Cruise robotaxi dragged a pedestrian, leading to a recall of Cruise's self-driving cars.
      Robotaxi Saturation [1] Guardian: Cruise recall
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2023-10-01-cruise-pedestrian-dragging
  • The "Wozniak" Test: Robot enters a random, previously unseen home and successfully makes a cup of coffee.Distant · assessed 2026-01-04 · 12 event(s)
    Distant (red, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    No robot has made coffee in a random unseen home; the closest result is π₀.5 performing cleaning tasks in unseen homes, and Figure's Helix grasping novel objects. Zero-shot reliability of ~20–50% is the core blocker, with the full test likely 2027–2030.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-hardware.md · 6 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (6)

    • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-04-01-pi05-unseen-homes-rv
      Physical Intelligence released its π₀.5 vision-language-action model in April 2025, which performed cleaning tasks in homes never seen during training and scored 88–100% on trained tasks.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] Physical Intelligence: π₀.5
    • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-10-01-figure-03-helix-novel-objects-rv
      In October 2025 Figure AI showed Figure 03 with its Helix VLA picking up novel objects from language commands; Helix controls the full upper body (35 DoF at 200 Hz) and Figure says it can grasp 'virtually any' novel household object.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] Figure AI: Helix
    • 2025-03 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-03-01-deepmind-gemini-robotics-rv
      Google DeepMind introduced Gemini Robotics in March 2025, a multi-embodiment vision-language-action model with reasoning that more than doubles generalization performance versus prior models.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] DeepMind: Gemini Robotics
    • 2025-10 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-10-01-1x-neo-preorders-rv
      1X Technologies opened pre-orders for its NEO home humanoid robot in October 2025 at $20,000 or a $499 monthly subscription.
      The "Wozniak" Test [1] 1X: NEO home robot
    • 2024 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2024-04-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2024-01-01-stanford-mobile-aloha-cooking-rv
      Stanford's Mobile ALOHA robot performed cooking tasks in 2024 demos, but required about 50 demonstrations in the target environment.
    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-agility-home-safety-stance-rv
      Agility Robotics stated that its humanoids will not go into homes until it can prove the robot is not going to fall on a baby.

    Other events (6)

    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Agility Robotics stated that its humanoids will not go into homes until it can prove the robot is not going to fall on a baby.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-agility-home-safety-stance
    • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      In October 2025 Figure AI showed Figure 03 with its Helix VLA picking up novel objects from language commands; Helix controls the full upper body (35 DoF at 200 Hz) and Figure says it can grasp 'virtually any' novel household object.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] Figure AI: Helix
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-figure-03-helix-novel-objects
    • 2025-10 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      1X Technologies opened pre-orders for its NEO home humanoid robot in October 2025 at $20,000 or a $499 monthly subscription.
      The "Wozniak" Test [1] 1X: NEO home robot
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-1x-neo-preorders
    • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
      Physical Intelligence released its π₀.5 vision-language-action model in April 2025, which performed cleaning tasks in homes never seen during training and scored 88–100% on trained tasks.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] Physical Intelligence: π₀.5
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-pi05-unseen-homes
    • 2025-03 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Google DeepMind introduced Gemini Robotics in March 2025, a multi-embodiment vision-language-action model with reasoning that more than doubles generalization performance versus prior models.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] DeepMind: Gemini Robotics
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-01-deepmind-gemini-robotics
    • 2024 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2024-04-30verified
      Stanford's Mobile ALOHA robot performed cooking tasks in 2024 demos, but required about 50 demonstrations in the target environment.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-01-01-stanford-mobile-aloha-cooking
  • The "Fukushima" Test: Robot autonomously navigates a disaster zone and performs a critical repair (valve/switch) within human time limits.Approaching · assessed 2026-01-04 · 12 event(s)
    Approaching (yellow, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    Autonomous navigation, radiation survival and valve/switch manipulation have been demonstrated, but critical disaster-zone manipulation remains teleoperated and autonomous repair decisions are not demonstrated. TEPCO has retrieved only ~0.9 g of the ~880 t of fuel debris.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-hardware.md · 6 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (6)

    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
      TEPCO retrieved only about 0.9 g of fuel debris in total from Fukushima Daiichi in 2024–2025, against roughly 880 tonnes remaining, with the retrieval robots teleoperated.
      ↳ followup of 2025-04-01-fukushima-second-debris-retrieval
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-spot-nuclear-site-inspections-rv
      Boston Dynamics' Spot robot is in ongoing inspection deployments at the Fukushima Daiichi, Chernobyl and Sellafield nuclear sites.
    • 2025-06 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-06-01-uk-nda-auto-sas-robotics-rv
      The UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority launched the £9.5 million Auto-SAS robotics partnership in June 2025 to develop autonomous sorting of nuclear waste.
    • 2025-08 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-08-01-atlas-tri-large-behavior-models-rv
      Boston Dynamics and Toyota Research Institute demonstrated the Atlas humanoid controlled by Large Behavior Models in August 2025.
      The "Fukushima" TestGeneralization [1] Toyota: Boston Dynamics and TRI Atlas
    • 2025-10 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-10-01-darpa-triage-challenge-event-2-rv
      DARPA held Event 2 of its Triage Challenge in October 2025, in which robots navigated simulated crash scenarios.
      The "Fukushima" Test [1] DARPA: Triage Challenge
    • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-09-29legacycited as evidence
      TEPCO carried out a second Fukushima Daiichi fuel debris retrieval in April 2025, recovering about 0.69 g.
      ↳ followup of 2024-11-01-fukushima-first-debris-sample (superseded by 2024-11-01-fukushima-first-debris-sample-rv)

    Other events (6)

    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Boston Dynamics' Spot robot is in ongoing inspection deployments at the Fukushima Daiichi, Chernobyl and Sellafield nuclear sites.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-spot-nuclear-site-inspections
    • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-06-23verified
      Equinor deployed ANYbotics' ANYmal quadruped at the Northern Lights carbon capture and storage facility in 2025 for CO₂ monitoring.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-anymal-northern-lights-ccs
    • 2025-10 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      DARPA held Event 2 of its Triage Challenge in October 2025, in which robots navigated simulated crash scenarios.
      The "Fukushima" Test [1] DARPA: Triage Challenge
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-darpa-triage-challenge-event-2
    • 2025-08 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-08-20verified
      Boston Dynamics and Toyota Research Institute demonstrated the Atlas humanoid controlled by Large Behavior Models in August 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-08-01-atlas-tri-large-behavior-models
    • 2025-06 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      The UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority launched the £9.5 million Auto-SAS robotics partnership in June 2025 to develop autonomous sorting of nuclear waste.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-06-01-uk-nda-auto-sas-robotics
    • 2024-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
      TEPCO retrieved its first fuel-debris sample from Fukushima Daiichi in November 2024; the sample weighed approximately 0.7 grams.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-11-01-fukushima-first-debris-sample
  • The "Blue Collar" Shift: General purpose robot completes a full 8-hour shift in a real workplace (Construction, Factory, Logistics) working collaboratively alongside humans.Approaching · assessed 2026-01-04 · 8 event(s)
    Approaching (yellow, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
    No humanoid has completed a verified continuous 8-hour fully autonomous shift; Figure 02 ran 10-hour shifts for 11 months at BMW but required support staff. Deployments remain limited to 1–2 repetitive tasks, need human resets, and Optimus demos are often teleoperated.
    by migration:pilot-2025/robots-hardware.md · 5 evidence event(s)

    Cited evidence (5)

    • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-figure-02-bmw-production-run-rv
      Figure AI completed an 11-month production deployment of Figure 02 humanoids at BMW's Spartanburg, South Carolina plant, working 10-hour shifts Monday–Friday for 1,250+ hours, handling 90,000+ parts and contributing to 30,000+ vehicles, with support staff required.
    • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-11-01-digit-100k-totes-gxo-rv
      Agility Robotics reported that its Digit humanoids at GXO Logistics had moved more than 100,000 totes in commercial production as of November 2025, running about 4 hours per battery with autonomous docking.
      KPIThe "Blue Collar" Shift [1] Agility: Digit moves over 100K totes
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-kepler-k2-8-hour-livestream-rv
      Kepler's K2 humanoid (about $34,600) ran an 8-hour livestream on a single charge in a trade-show demo, not in production work.
      The "Blue Collar" ShiftPower/Efficiency/Cost [1] RockingRobots: Kepler 8-hour endurance
    • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
      The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla Optimus demos are often remotely controlled by human engineers.
      The "Blue Collar" Shift [1] WSJ: Elon Musk Optimus robots
    • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacycited as evidence
      A Tesla Optimus humanoid fell over during a Miami demo in 2025, a viral moment revealing its dependence on teleoperation.
      Beyond the frameworkThe "Blue Collar" Shift [1] Forbes: 2025, another year of humanoid hype

    Other events (3)

    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Kepler's K2 humanoid (about $34,600) ran an 8-hour livestream on a single charge in a trade-show demo, not in production work.
      The "Blue Collar" ShiftPower/Efficiency/Cost [1] RockingRobots: Kepler 8-hour endurance
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-kepler-k2-8-hour-livestream
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
      Figure AI completed an 11-month production deployment of Figure 02 humanoids at BMW's Spartanburg, South Carolina plant, working 10-hour shifts Monday–Friday for 1,250+ hours, handling 90,000+ parts and contributing to 30,000+ vehicles, with support staff required.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-figure-02-bmw-production-run
    • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
      Agility Robotics reported that its Digit humanoids at GXO Logistics had moved more than 100,000 totes in commercial production as of November 2025, running about 4 hours per battery with autonomous docking.
      KPIThe "Blue Collar" Shift [1] Agility: Digit moves over 100K totes
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-digit-100k-totes-gxo

Major Open Challenges

  • Dexterous Manipulation: Human-level hands requiring dense tactile sensing, compliant actuators, and real-time control across 10,000+ object types including deformables.7 event(s)

    Events (7)

    • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Shadow Robot received an £11 million ARIA grant for systematic robot hand design (OGRES/UPWARD projects).
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-shadow-robot-aria-grant
    • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Sanctuary AI's Gen 7 Phoenix humanoid has 20-degree-of-freedom hands with haptic feedback, versus 27 DoF in a human hand.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-sanctuary-gen7-phoenix-hands
    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      ICRA 2025 held its 5th workshop on deformable object manipulation (cloth, cables, food), a problem with no unified solution framework.
      Dexterous Manipulation [1] ICRA 2025 Deformable Workshop
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-icra-2025-deformable-workshop
    • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      GelSight and Meta AI released the Digit 360 tactile fingertip sensor, with 18+ sensing modalities and detection of forces down to 1 millinewton.
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      NVIDIA and UT Austin's DexMimicGen, presented at ICRA 2025, generated 20,000+ bimanual dexterous manipulation demonstrations from 60 human demonstrations.
      Dexterous ManipulationGeneralization [1] DexMimicGen project page
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-dexmimicgen-icra-2025
    • 2025-12 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-12-10verified
      MIT researchers unveiled a vine-inspired robotic gripper in December 2025 that gently lifts heavy and fragile objects.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-mit-vine-inspired-gripper
    • 2025-09 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Figure AI introduced the Figure 03 humanoid in September 2025, with new hands carrying custom tactile sensors that detect forces as small as 3 grams.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-01-figure-03-tactile-hands
  • Generalization: Few-shot skill acquisition, robust task transfer across environments, recovery from unexpected failures, and long-horizon replanning without human intervention.13 event(s)

    Events (13)

    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Google DeepMind's RT-2-X robotics model shows chain-of-thought reasoning and emergent skills, performing about 3× better than RT-1.
      Generalization [1] RT-2 project page
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-rt2x-emergent-skills
    • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
      Berkeley/Stanford's OpenVLA-OFT fine-tuning recipe enables 25–50× faster inference, higher task success rates, multiple input images and high-frequency bimanual robot control.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-openvla-oft-faster-inference
    • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      NVIDIA released Isaac GR00T N1, described as the first open humanoid robot foundation model.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-nvidia-gr00t-n1-open-model
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      NVIDIA and UT Austin's DexMimicGen, presented at ICRA 2025, generated 20,000+ bimanual dexterous manipulation demonstrations from 60 human demonstrations.
      Dexterous ManipulationGeneralization [1] DexMimicGen project page
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-dexmimicgen-icra-2025
    • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      A 2025 UC Berkeley AutoEval technical report found that SIMPLER simulation evaluation scores were uncorrelated with real-world performance for some robot policies.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-autoeval-simpler-sim-to-real
    • 2025-12 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31verified
      The REALM benchmark paper (arXiv, December 2025) found that VLA models π₀ and GR00T N1.5 struggle when tasks are perturbed, indicating fragile generalization.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-realm-benchmark-vla-perturbations
    • 2025-11 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2025-11-30verified
      A November 2025 arXiv survey of ten open challenges for VLA robot models found long-horizon multi-step tasks remain fragile due to compounding errors.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-vla-ten-open-challenges
    • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      In October 2025 Figure AI showed Figure 03 with its Helix VLA picking up novel objects from language commands; Helix controls the full upper body (35 DoF at 200 Hz) and Figure says it can grasp 'virtually any' novel household object.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] Figure AI: Helix
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-figure-03-helix-novel-objects
    • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-31verified
      The FailSafe system (arXiv, October 2025) adds automatic failure detection and recovery to VLA models, which cannot reason about failures themselves, improving π₀ and OpenVLA by +22.6%.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-failsafe-failure-recovery
    • 2025-08 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-08-20verified
      Boston Dynamics and Toyota Research Institute demonstrated the Atlas humanoid controlled by Large Behavior Models in August 2025.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-08-01-atlas-tri-large-behavior-models
    • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
      Physical Intelligence released its π₀.5 vision-language-action model in April 2025, which performed cleaning tasks in homes never seen during training and scored 88–100% on trained tasks.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] Physical Intelligence: π₀.5
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-pi05-unseen-homes
    • 2025-03 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Google DeepMind introduced Gemini Robotics in March 2025, a multi-embodiment vision-language-action model with reasoning that more than doubles generalization performance versus prior models.
      The "Wozniak" TestGeneralization [1] DeepMind: Gemini Robotics
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-01-deepmind-gemini-robotics
    • 2025-03 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-03-31verified
      The STAR framework (arXiv, March 2025) achieves a 78% failure recovery rate for robot manipulation.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-01-star-failure-recovery-78pct
  • Power/Efficiency/Cost: Extending 1-2 hour runtimes to full 8-hour shifts via battery breakthroughs or radical actuator efficiency gains, at commercially viable price points.10 event(s)

    Events (10)

    • 2025-12 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Samsung invested in Alva Industries in December 2025 to scale its FiberPrinting ultra-compact motor technology.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-samsung-invests-alva-industries
    • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Unitree unveiled its R1 humanoid priced at $5,900, with about 1 hour of runtime and limited payload.
    • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
      Unitree lists the G1 humanoid at a starting price of $13.5K.
      Power/Efficiency/Cost [1] Unitree G1
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-unitree-g1-13500
    • 2025 · projection · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 targets 8–12 hours of runtime on light tasks, a 20 kg payload and a $20,000–30,000 unit cost.
    • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
      Kepler's K2 humanoid (about $34,600) ran an 8-hour livestream on a single charge in a trade-show demo, not in production work.
      The "Blue Collar" ShiftPower/Efficiency/Cost [1] RockingRobots: Kepler 8-hour endurance
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-kepler-k2-8-hour-livestream
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Figure 02 runs about 5–6 hours per charge with a 20 kg payload at an estimated cost of $50,000–150,000.
      Power/Efficiency/Cost [1] eesel: Figure AI pricing
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
      Agility Robotics says Digit’s expanded battery capabilities last up to four hours and it can autonomously dock onto a charging station.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-digit-runtime-cost-specs
    • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
      Apptronik's Apollo humanoid runs 4–5 hours per battery (up to 22 hours per spec with hot-swappable batteries), carries 25 kg and targets a price under $50,000.
      Power/Efficiency/Cost [1] Apptronik: Our work
    • 2025 · projection · ●○○ · known 2025-12-03corrected
      E-magy says its first drone pouch-cell iteration is in production, with an improved design expected in H1 2026; its silicon-anode cells are claimed to deliver 40% higher energy density.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-e-magy-silicon-anode-h1-2026
    • 2025 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2025-09-24corrected
      GlobalSpec reported that batteries in the latest humanoid models limit runtime to two to four hours per charge.
      ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-globalspec-battery-life-decade
Beyond the framework: 24 event(s)
  • 2025-12 · announcement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    ABB agreed to sell its Robotics division to SoftBank for $5.375 billion, a major industry consolidation.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-abb-robotics-sold-to-softbank
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Tracxn data put total humanoid robot sector VC funding in 2025 at about $1.71 billion, an 81% increase over 2024.
    Beyond the frameworkKPI [1] Tracxn: Humanoid robot startups
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Pudu Robotics launched its D5 industrial quadruped robot series at iREX 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-pudu-d5-irex-2025
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Physical Intelligence raised $600 million in a Series B round, with investors including OpenAI and Tiger Global, to advance robot foundation models.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-physical-intelligence-600m
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    NEURA Robotics raised a €120 million Series B round from investors including Lingotto and the Volvo Cars Tech Fund.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-neura-series-b-120m
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
    Fourier’s Series E secured nearly ¥800 million (about $109.1 million), with joint participation from Guoxin Investment, Pudong Venture Capital and Prosperity7.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-fourier-series-e-109m
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Figure AI raised a Series C round of more than $1 billion from investors including Parkway VC, NVIDIA, Intel and LG.
    Beyond the framework [1] Figure AI: Series C
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-figure-series-c
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Apptronik closed a $403 million Series A round with investors including Google, Mercedes-Benz and ARK.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-apptronik-series-a-403m
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    1X Technologies is seeking up to $1 billion in new funding at a target valuation of $10 billion or more.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacy
    A Tesla Optimus humanoid fell over during a Miami demo in 2025, a viral moment revealing its dependence on teleoperation.
    Beyond the frameworkThe "Blue Collar" Shift [1] Forbes: 2025, another year of humanoid hype
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-30verified
    China has more than 150 humanoid robot companies, and its National Development and Reform Commission warned of a bubble in the sector.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-china-150-humanoid-companies-ndrc-bubble
  • 2025-12 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-27legacy
    China issued draft rules in December 2025 regulating AI with human-like interaction, including controls on emotional manipulation and protections for the elderly.
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2025-12-22verified
    XPeng revealed its IRON humanoid robot in 2025, including a dramatic 'skin peel' demonstration proving its authenticity.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-xpeng-iron-reveal
  • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-12-22verified
    UBTech's Walker S2 'marching army' demo drew more than 15 million TikTok views in 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ubtech-walker-s2-marching-demo
  • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-12-22verified
    Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 humanoid served popcorn at the Tesla Diner in a viral 2025 moment.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-optimus-serves-popcorn-tesla-diner
  • 2025-12 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-03verified
    In December 2025 the US Commerce Secretary met with robotics CEOs as the Trump administration considered an executive order on robotics.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-us-commerce-robotics-ceos-eo
  • 2025-12-17 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    CMR Surgical's Versius Plus surgical robot received US FDA clearance on December 17, 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-17-fda-clears-cmr-versius-plus
  • 2025-12-15 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-15corrected
    On December 15, 2025, iRobot announced a restructuring agreement under which its Chinese creditor and contract manufacturer planned to acquire the company through a court-supervised Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-15-irobot-bankruptcy
  • 2025-12-04 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Medtronic's Hugo surgical robot received US FDA clearance on December 4, 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-04-fda-clears-medtronic-hugo
  • 2025-10 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2025-10-10verified
    Multiple venture capitalists told TechCrunch in October 2025 that the world is 'just not quite ready for humanoids yet', predicting scaled adoption is still years away.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-vcs-world-not-ready-humanoids
  • 2025-10-01 · policy · ●○○ · known 2025-07-30verified
    California rules restricting the use of AI in employment decision-making, approved in July 2025, took effect on October 1, 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-california-ai-employment-rules
  • 2025-09 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-09-09verified
    Unitree was reported in September 2025 to be planning an IPO at a valuation of about $7 billion.
    Beyond the framework [1] CNBC: Unitree IPO
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-01-unitree-7b-ipo
  • 2025-08 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-19corrected
    The World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing featured more than 500 humanoid robots competing in sporting events and real-world tasks.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-08-01-world-humanoid-robot-games-beijing
  • 2025-04 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Hugging Face acquired Pollen Robotics in April 2025 and put the open-source Reachy 2 robot on sale for $70,000.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-hugging-face-acquires-pollen
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 91)
  • 2025-12 · announcement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    ABB agreed to sell its Robotics division to SoftBank for $5.375 billion, a major industry consolidation.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-abb-robotics-sold-to-softbank
  • 2025 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    Tesla abandoned its target of producing 5,000 Optimus humanoid robots in 2025 and temporarily halted Optimus mass production, keeping Optimus in internal pilot testing at its factories.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-tesla-optimus-5000-target-abandoned
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    Figure AI completed an 11-month production deployment of Figure 02 humanoids at BMW's Spartanburg, South Carolina plant, working 10-hour shifts Monday–Friday for 1,250+ hours, handling 90,000+ parts and contributing to 30,000+ vehicles, with support staff required.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-figure-02-bmw-production-run
  • 2025-12 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Tesla missed all its 2025 robotaxi targets: Tesla had promised driverless service in 8–10 cities by end of 2025, and none was achieved.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla Optimus demos are often remotely controlled by human engineers.
    The "Blue Collar" Shift [1] WSJ: Elon Musk Optimus robots
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Unitree unveiled its R1 humanoid priced at $5,900, with about 1 hour of runtime and limited payload.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
    Unitree lists the G1 humanoid at a starting price of $13.5K.
    Power/Efficiency/Cost [1] Unitree G1
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-unitree-g1-13500
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Tracxn data put total humanoid robot sector VC funding in 2025 at about $1.71 billion, an 81% increase over 2024.
    Beyond the frameworkKPI [1] Tracxn: Humanoid robot startups

Rockets and Space

What child hasn't looked at the starry sky in wonder? The universe promises many worlds humanity could spread to — removing some eggs from the "one basket", a new age of discovery, making all raw materials cheap, and vast opportunities for community independence. And if nothing else, transport by orbital flights is the next best thing to teleportation, allowing you to reach the opposite side of the globe in 90 minutes.

KPI: Cost to LEO ($/kg)
Now: —Strongly improving · assessed 2026-01-04
no required KPI metric in the registry yet
cost-to-leo-best
1500 $/kg
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-04 · sourcelegacy
irregular releases (no schedule)
payload-mass-to-orbit
3141 t
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-04 · sourcelegacy
▲ +512 vs previous observation (2024): 2629
70 annual obs 1956-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0..3141
next expected by 2027-01-15

Assessment

Strongly improving (green, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
Cost to LEO has fallen ~40× from the Space Shuttle era ($54,500/kg) to $1,500/kg for Falcon Heavy. With Starship operational, another 10–100× reduction is possible by 2030.
by migration:pilot-2025/rockets.md · 5 evidence event(s)

Cited evidence (5)

  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-launch-price-per-kg-comparison-rv
    SpaceXStock's 2025 launch-market comparison lists launch cost to LEO per kg of about $1,500/kg for SpaceX Falcon Heavy, $2,720/kg for reusable Falcon 9, ~$1,500–2,000/kg for Blue Origin New Glenn and $4,044/kg for ULA Vulcan.
  • 1985 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    CSIS Aerospace Security data put the historical Space Shuttle launch cost to LEO at about $54,500/kg.
  • 2025-08 · projection · ●○○ · known 2025-08-31legacycited as evidence
    A NextBigFuture analysis (Aug 2025) projected that SpaceX Starship with reuse could bring launch cost to LEO down to about $100/kg.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    China-in-Space estimates the cost to LEO of China's Long March 3B at about $4,412/kg.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    Rocket Lab's Electron small launcher costs about $19,039/kg to LEO (Wikipedia figure cited for 2025).

Other events (3)

  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Ill-Defined Space's 2025 global orbital launch summary puts SpaceX's share of global payload mass to orbit at ~85% in 2025, versus ~86% in 2024 and 60% in 2020.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
    SpaceXStock’s comparison lists LEO launch costs of $1,500/kg for Falcon Heavy, $2,720/kg for Falcon 9, $4,044/kg for Vulcan, and $19,039/kg for Electron; it gives no New Glenn cost.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-launch-price-per-kg-comparison
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Jonathan's Space Report counts a record ~3,141 tonnes of payload launched to Earth orbit worldwide in 2025 (+19% on 2024's 2,629 t), up from 347 t in 2015, 337 t (2016), 395 t (2017), 389 t (2018), 399 t (2019), 572 t (2020), 797 t (2021), 1,047 t (2022) and 1,468 t (2023) — about 3% of the 100,000 t/yr 'Deluge' threshold.

Milestone Countdown

Major Open Challenges

Beyond the framework: 12 event(s)
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    Boeing Starliner's NASA contract was reduced to 4 missions from 6, and its next flight will be cargo-only without astronauts.
    ↳ followup of 2025-03-18-starliner-crew-return-crew-9
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    SpaceX completed 167 orbital launches in 2025, the most by any entity in history and about 85% of US orbital missions that year.
  • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    China launched its 12th batch of Guowang satellites in 2025 for the planned 13,000-satellite broadband mega-constellation.
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    The Trump administration's FY2026 budget request proposed significant NASA cuts, including potential termination of the SLS rocket.
    Beyond the frameworkThe Homestead [1] SpaceNews: Trump FY2026 NASA budget
  • 2025-12 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31corrected
    The December 2025 executive order “Ensuring American Space Superiority” set a 2028 Moon-return goal, prioritized commercial space, and revoked the 2021 National Space Council order.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-executive-order-space-superiority
  • 2025-12-18 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-18verified
    The US Senate confirmed Jared Isaacman as NASA Administrator on 18 December 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-18-isaacman-confirmed-nasa-administrator
  • 2025-12-16 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    As of 16 December 2025, 59 nations had signed the Artemis Accords on international lunar cooperation.
    The HomesteadBeyond the framework [1] NASA: Artemis Accords
  • 2025-11 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-11-25legacy
    China's Shenzhou-20 spacecraft was damaged by debris in November 2025, and China launched an emergency replacement, Shenzhou-22, within 16 days.
  • 2025-11-13 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-11-13verified
    Blue Origin's New Glenn landed its booster on its second flight on 13 November 2025 (launching NASA's ESCAPADE Mars mission), the first propulsive orbital-booster landing by a company other than SpaceX.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-13-new-glenn-booster-landing
  • 2025-10-21 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-10-21corrected
    ESA’s 2025 Space Environment Report estimates 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm and 1.2 million objects from 1 cm to 10 cm.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-21-esa-space-environment-report
  • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Fram2 flew the first crewed polar-orbit spaceflight (90.01° inclination) in April 2025, carrying 4 civilians over Earth's poles.
    Beyond the framework [1] Wikipedia: Fram2
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-fram2-polar-orbit
  • 2025-03-18 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    NASA astronauts Wilmore and Williams, stranded about 9 months after Boeing's Starliner test flight, returned to Earth on SpaceX Crew-9 on 18 March 2025.
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 56)

Fusion and Energy

Energy is the key limiting factor of the material world. It does not have to be. If all electricity bills go to zero, how does that change our lives, from heating (homes, iron or saltwater) to food, to travel, to compute? There are many short-term fixes, but the long-term approach is unlikely to be anything but nuclear fusion (and superconductors make everything easier).

KPI: Worldwide average electricity cost ($/MWh)
Now: —⚠️ Mixed · assessed 2026-01-03
no required KPI metric in the registry yet
elec-price-household-gpp-avg
170.0 $/MWh
obs 2025-Q3 · known 2025-10-12 · sourcecollector
+3.0 vs previous observation (2025-Q2): 167.0 not comparable: different calendar month: seasonal cycle not removed
25 quarterly obs 2019-03-31..2025-09-30; range 137..181
quarterly data, no fixed release date
elec-price-household-world-popw-nominal
109.7 $/MWh
obs 2025-Q1 · known 2025-11-09 · sourcecollector
▲ +3.9 vs same month a year earlier (2024-Q1: 105.8)
-0.6 vs previous observation (2024-Q4): 110.3 not comparable: different calendar month: seasonal cycle not removed
25 quarterly obs 2018-06-30..2025-03-31; range 102.3..113.8
quarterly data, no fixed release date
elec-price-household-world-popw-real
109.7 $/MWh
obs 2025-Q1 · known 2025-11-09 · sourcecollector
▲ +1.2 vs same month a year earlier (2024-Q1: 108.5)
-3.5 vs previous observation (2024-Q4): 113.2 not comparable: different calendar month: seasonal cycle not removed
25 quarterly obs 2018-06-30..2025-03-31; range 105.1..136.8
quarterly data, no fixed release date
elec-wholesale-eu
90 $/MWh
obs 2025-H1 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
irregular releases (no schedule)
elec-wholesale-us
48 $/MWh
obs 2025-H1 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
irregular releases (no schedule)
lcoe-offshore-wind-irena
79 $/MWh
obs 2024 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
▼ -2 vs previous observation (2022): 81
6 annual obs 2010-12-31..2024-12-31; range 79..208
annual data, no fixed release date
lcoe-onshore-wind-irena
34 $/MWh
obs 2024 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
▲ +1 vs previous observation (2022): 33
6 annual obs 2010-12-31..2024-12-31; range 33..113
annual data, no fixed release date
lcoe-solar-pv-irena
43 $/MWh
obs 2024 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
▼ -8 vs previous observation (2022): 51
6 annual obs 2010-12-31..2024-12-31; range 43..417
annual data, no fixed release date

Assessment

⚠️ Mixed (yellow, assessed 2026-01-03)legacy
Renewable generation costs have collapsed (solar LCOE $43/MWh, -90% since 2010), but wholesale prices remain volatile and rose in H1 2025 (EU ~$90/MWh, US ~$48/MWh). Fusion remains commercially unproven, with first plants expected to exceed current nuclear costs.
by migration:pilot-2025/fusion.md · 6 evidence event(s)

Cited evidence (6)

  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30legacycited as evidence
    IRENA's Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 report gives the global weighted-average LCOE of newly commissioned utility-scale solar PV as $43/MWh in 2024, down from $417 (2010), $127 (2015), $85 (2018), $55 (2020) and $51/MWh (2022).
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30legacycited as evidence
    IRENA's Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 report gives the global weighted-average LCOE of newly commissioned onshore wind as $34/MWh in 2024, down from $113 (2010), $64 (2015), $48 (2018), $39 (2020) and $33/MWh (2022).
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacycited as evidence
    IEA's Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 puts the average EU wholesale electricity price at about $90/MWh in H1 2025 (+30% year on year), after roughly $50 (2019), $40 (2020), $90 (2021), $230 (2022), $100 (2023) and $70/MWh (2024).
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacycited as evidence
    IEA's Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 puts the average US wholesale electricity price at about $48/MWh in H1 2025 (+40% year on year), after roughly $35 (2019), $30 (2020), $40 (2021), $65 (2022), $40 (2023) and $35/MWh (2024).
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-01-01-lazard-lcoe-2025-rv
    Lazard's LCOE+ 2025 (June 2025) gives LCOE ranges of $27–73/MWh (avg $50) for onshore wind, $29–92/MWh (avg $58) for solar PV, $41–108/MWh (avg $78) for gas combined cycle and $142–222/MWh for new nuclear fission.
  • 2023 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2023-12-31legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2023-01-01-lindley-fusion-foak-lcoe-rv
    Lindley et al. (Energy Policy, 2023) estimate that first-of-a-kind fusion power plants would have a levelized cost of electricity above $150/MWh.

Other events (7)

  • 2025 · projection · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03legacy
    Commonwealth Fusion Systems, as reported by TIME in 2025, projects that nth-of-a-kind fusion plants could produce electricity at $50–100/MWh.
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2025-12-31verified
    Ember's Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 found renewables overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time in H1 2025, at 34.3% versus 33.1% of the total.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ember-renewables-overtake-coal
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30corrected
    Lazard's LCOE+ 2025 (June 2025) gives LCOE ranges of $27–73/MWh (avg $50) for onshore wind, $29–92/MWh (avg $58) for solar PV, $41–108/MWh (avg $78) for gas combined cycle and $142–222/MWh for new nuclear fission.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-lazard-lcoe-2025
  • 2025-11-12 · projection · ●●○ · known 2025-11-12verified
    IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 projects that in its Stated Policies Scenario real (2024 USD) household retail electricity prices to 2035 decline slightly in Europe, decline modestly in the United States, decline in India and stay relatively stable in China, while in its Current Policies Scenario US prices rise and China's rise slightly.
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30legacy
    IRENA's Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 report gives the global weighted-average LCOE of newly commissioned offshore wind as $79/MWh in 2024, down from $208 (2010), $155 (2015), $127 (2018), $89 (2020) and $81/MWh (2022).
  • 2024-09-11 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2024-09-11verified
    The US EIA found that average US residential electricity prices rose by less than 1% in inflation-adjusted terms between 2013 and 2023, while the nominal average rose from a little over 12 cents/kWh to 16 cents/kWh.
  • 2023 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2023-12-31verified
    Lindley et al. (Energy Policy, 2023) estimate that first-of-a-kind fusion power plants would have a levelized cost of electricity above $150/MWh.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2023-01-01-lindley-fusion-foak-lcoe

Milestone Countdown

Tech Tree

Beyond the framework: 16 event(s)
  • 2026-01 · policy · ●○○ · known 2026-01-02corrected
    In January 2026, China released its first national standard for solid-state batteries.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2026-01-01-china-solid-state-battery-standard
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03verified
    US grid-scale energy storage capacity reached 40 GW in Q3 2025, surpassing a 35 GW target set in 2017.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-us-grid-storage-40gw
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03verified
    The UK government committed £2.5 billion to fusion energy over five years.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-uk-2-5bn-fusion
  • 2025 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-03corrected
    Princeton researchers developed Diag2Diag, an AI system that generates synthetic diagnostic sensor data to support real-time fusion plasma control.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-princeton-diag2diag
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-03legacy
    The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency's SMR Dashboard tracks 127 small modular reactor designs globally.
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03corrected
    Google DeepMind and CFS will explore ways to improve operation of the SPARC fusion machine using AI.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-deepmind-cfs-ai
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacy
    The journal Science named the growth of renewable energy its 2025 Breakthrough of the Year.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31verified
    Ember's Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 found solar alone met 83% of the growth in global electricity demand in H1 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ember-solar-83pct-demand-growth
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2025-12-31verified
    Ember's Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 found renewables overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time in H1 2025, at 34.3% versus 33.1% of the total.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ember-renewables-overtake-coal
  • 2025-12 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-12-19verified
    In December 2025, Max Planck Institute researchers measured the superconducting gap in the hydride H₃S for the first time.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-h3s-superconducting-gap
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-18corrected
    CATF reported on December 18, 2025, that DOE announced the return of a standalone Office of Fusion.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-doe-office-of-fusion
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-04-29legacy
    TerraPower secured $650M from investors including NVIDIA and HD Hyundai for its Natrium reactor, and the NRC completed a draft safety evaluation for the project.
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-04-29verified
    Germany signed a memorandum of understanding for a laser fusion power plant at the former Biblis nuclear site, targeted by 2035.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-germany-biblis-laser-fusion-mou
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-19verified
    In November 2025, Tokamak Energy validated its Demo4 high-temperature-superconducting magnet system at 11.8 T and −243°C.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-tokamak-energy-demo4-magnet
  • 2025-10 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-10-31legacy
    In October 2025, NYU and University of Queensland researchers created superconducting germanium with superconductivity at 3.5 K.
  • 2025-09 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31corrected
    In September 2025, NuScale, ENTRA1 and TVA signed a 6 GW small modular reactor deal, the largest SMR program in US history.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-01-nuscale-entra1-tva-6gw
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 62)
  • 2025-12 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-03verified
    In December 2025, Eavor delivered first electricity from its closed-loop geothermal system at Geretsried to the German grid.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-eavor-geretsried-first-power
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●● · known 2026-01-03corrected
    In 2025, Fervo Energy raised a $462M Series E to scale its Cape Station enhanced geothermal project to 500 MW by 2028.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-fervo-series-e-cape
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03corrected
    In 2025, Zap Energy's FuZE-3 device reached a plasma pressure of 1.6 GPa (about 10,000 times atmospheric pressure), and the company is scaling to FuZE-A.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-zap-fuze3-1-6-gpa
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03verified
    US grid-scale energy storage capacity reached 40 GW in Q3 2025, surpassing a 35 GW target set in 2017.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-us-grid-storage-40gw
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03verified
    The UK government committed £2.5 billion to fusion energy over five years.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-uk-2-5bn-fusion
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03legacy
    In 2025, TAE Technologies achieved a world-first formation of a field-reversed configuration plasma using neutral beam injection only.
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03legacy
    In 2025, p-B11 fusion developer TAE Technologies was party to a merger valued at $6 billion.
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03corrected
    Sage Geosystems has a 3 MW geothermal pressure-storage facility and has a 150 MW geothermal deal with Meta.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-sage-meta-150mw

Health and Lifespan

Some people long for immortality, others would just prefer not to die (or live a low-quality life) yet. The biggest symbol for fixing this is our journey to cure cancer, but the fight against other diseases such as Alzheimer's (or potential pandemics), as well as perfected early diagnostics, are just as important. And to achieve not just plain longevity, but long healthy lifespan, eventually we need to move further — to evolve our biology, not just fight off diseases.

KPI: Median country Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at birth (years) — currently ~72y (WHO 2021)
Now: —Worsening (pandemic reversal) · assessed 2026-01-04
no required KPI metric in the registry yet
hale-global
61.9 years
obs 2021 · known 2024-08-02 · sourcecollector
▼ -0.9 vs previous observation (2020): 62.8
22 annual obs 2000-12-31..2021-12-31; range 58.1..63.5
irregular releases (no schedule)
hale-median-country
62.9 years
obs 2021 · known 2024-08-02 · sourcecollector
▼ -0.5 vs previous observation (2020): 63.4
22 annual obs 2000-12-31..2021-12-31; range 61.4..64.3
irregular releases (no schedule)

Assessment

Worsening (pandemic reversal) (red, assessed 2026-01-04)legacy
Global HALE at birth fell from its 2019 peak of 63.5 years to 61.9 years in 2021, a 1.6-year drop that erased roughly a decade of gains. No official data exists beyond 2021, so the recovery trajectory is unknown; national life-expectancy proxies show only partial recovery.
by migration:pilot-2025/health.md · 8 evidence event(s)

Cited evidence (8)

  • 2021 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2021-01-01-who-global-hale-2021-rv
    WHO Global Health Estimates put population-weighted global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth at 61.9 years in 2021, the latest year with official data.
  • 2019 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2019-01-01-who-global-hale-2019-rv
    WHO Global Health Estimates put population-weighted global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth at 63.5 years in 2019, the pre-pandemic peak.
  • 2020 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2020-01-01-who-global-hale-2020-rv
    WHO Global Health Observatory data put global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth at 62.8 years in 2020, down from 63.5 years in 2019.
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2025-12-31legacycited as evidence
    WHO World Health Statistics 2025 reported that global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth fell by 1.6 years between 2019 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, rolling it back to 2012 levels.
  • 2019 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2019-01-01-who-global-hale-trend-2000-2019-rv
    According to WHO, global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth rose by 5.4 years between 2000 and 2019, about +0.28 years per year.
  • 2024 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04legacycited as evidence
    US life expectancy at birth was 79.25 years in 2024, still about 0.5 years below its pre-COVID 2019 level (CDC data via Macrotrends).
  • 2025-11 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-11-30legacycited as evidence
    A JAMA study (Nov 2025) found California life expectancy still 0.86 years below its 2019 level, with widened racial gaps in life expectancy.
  • 2025-12 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-12-01-ons-uk-life-expectancy-2022-2024-rv
    The UK Office for National Statistics (Dec 2025) reported life expectancy at birth for 2022–2024 of 83.0 years for females (recovered to pre-COVID 2019 levels) and 79.1 years for males (still about 10 weeks below pre-COVID levels).

Other events (5)

  • 2025-12 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-10verified
    The UK Office for National Statistics (Dec 2025) reported life expectancy at birth for 2022–2024 of 83.0 years for females (recovered to pre-COVID 2019 levels) and 79.1 years for males (still about 10 weeks below pre-COVID levels).
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-ons-uk-life-expectancy-2022-2024
  • 2021 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-04verified
    WHO Global Health Estimates put population-weighted global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth at 61.9 years in 2021, the latest year with official data.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2021-01-01-who-global-hale-2021
  • 2020 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    WHO Global Health Observatory data put global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth at 62.8 years in 2020, down from 63.5 years in 2019.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2020-01-01-who-global-hale-2020
  • 2019 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04corrected
    WHO reports global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth increased 9%, from 58.1 years in 2000 to 63.5 years in 2019, a 5.3-year increase.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2019-01-01-who-global-hale-trend-2000-2019
  • 2019 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    WHO Global Health Estimates put population-weighted global healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth at 63.5 years in 2019, the pre-pandemic peak.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2019-01-01-who-global-hale-2019

Milestone Countdown

Major Open Challenges

Beyond the framework: 16 event(s)
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 78)
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-04legacy
    The personalized mRNA cancer vaccine mRNA-4157/V940 plus pembrolizumab for melanoma, now in Phase 3, has shown a 44% reduction in recurrence and a 65% reduction in distant metastasis.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    SEER cancer statistics give 5-year survival for stage IV (metastatic) disease of 31% for breast cancer, 8.2% for lung cancer and 15.6% for colorectal cancer in the US.
  • 2025 · projection · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    The NHS-Galleri trial of multi-cancer early detection enrolled 140,000 participants, with results expected in mid-2026.
    Precise ScreeningPredictive Biomarkers [1] NHS NDRS: GRAIL partnership / NHS-Galleri
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    FDA staff attrition of more than 18% in 2025 is creating drug-approval bottlenecks, per Nature Reviews Drug Discovery.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    The FDA approved 46 novel drugs in 2025, with antibody-drug conjugates and bispecific antibodies dominating the oncology pipeline.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-fda-46-novel-drugs-2025
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04verified
    Eisai's anti-tau antibody etalanetug reduced plasma eMTBR-tau243 by more than 90% at 9 months and received FDA Fast Track designation.
    Brain PreservationUnbroken Mind [1] Eisai: etalanetug news release
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-eisai-etalanetug-tau-fast-track
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    The mRNA cancer vaccine autogene cevumeran for pancreatic cancer, moving from Phase 1 to Phase 2, has induced immune responses persisting about 4 years.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-04legacy
    The US ADAMS study estimated dementia prevalence at about 24% among people aged 80–89 and about 37% among those aged 90 and older.

Climate and Environment

This endeavor is unlike the other four, as it is about fixing the past rather than improving the future. A hundred years ago, we would have been talking about terraforming Sahara and Antarctica, but humanity messed up the Earth. Many historic civilizations fell to climate change, and we now have to clean up our mess if we are to survive into a better future.

KPI: Atmospheric CO₂ concentration (ppm) and 10-year trend (ppm/year)
Now: —⚠️ Accelerating in the wrong direction · assessed 2026-01-03
no required KPI metric in the registry yet
co2-emissions-energy-iea
—
no data yet
MtCO2 · annual
co2-emissions-fossil-gcb
—
no data yet
GtCO2 · annual
co2-emissions-fossil-industry-carbon-monitor
—
no data yet
GtCO2 · annual
co2-emissions-total-gcb
—
no data yet
GtCO2 · annual
co2-global-annual
425.62 ppm
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▲ +2.83 vs previous observation (2024): 422.79
47 annual obs 1979-12-31..2025-12-31; range 336.85..425.62
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-global-monthly
427.31 ppm
obs 2025-12 · known 2026-01-07 · sourcecollector
▲ +2.11 vs same month a year earlier (2024-12: 425.20)
+0.92 vs previous observation (2025-11): 426.39 not comparable: different calendar month: seasonal cycle not removed
564 monthly obs 1979-01-31..2025-12-31; range 334.36..427.31
next expected by 2026-02-07
co2-growth-global-jan-dec
2.06 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -1.70 vs previous observation (2024): 3.76
67 annual obs 1959-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0.49..3.76
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-growth-global-wmo
3.5 ppm/yr
obs 2024 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
annual data, no fixed release date
co2-growth-mlo-annual-mean
2.74 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -0.79 vs previous observation (2024): 3.53
2 annual obs 2024-12-31..2025-12-31; range 2.74..3.53
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-growth-mlo-annual-mean-scripps
—
no data yet
ppm/yr · irregular
co2-growth-mlo-jan-dec
2.23 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -1.10 vs previous observation (2024): 3.33
67 annual obs 1959-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0.31..3.33
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-growth-mlo-yoy-monthly
3.61 ppm
obs 2025-05 · known 2025-06-07 · sourceverified
▲ +0.71 vs same month a year earlier (2024-05: 2.90)
▲ +0.71 vs previous observation (2024-05): 2.90
3 monthly obs 2023-05-31..2025-05-31; range 2.9..3.61
OVERDUE — next obs expected by 2025-07-07
co2-mlo-annual
427.35 ppm
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▲ +2.74 vs previous observation (2024): 424.61
67 annual obs 1959-12-31..2025-12-31; range 315.98..427.35
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-mlo-daily
—
no data yet
ppm · daily
co2-mlo-monthly
427.49 ppm
obs 2025-12 · known 2026-01-07 · sourcecollector
▲ +2.09 vs same month a year earlier (2024-12: 425.40)
+1.03 vs previous observation (2025-11): 426.46 not comparable: different calendar month: seasonal cycle not removed
814 monthly obs 1958-03-31..2025-12-31; range 312.42..430.51
next expected by 2026-02-07
co2-mlo-monthly-scripps
430.5 ppm
obs 2025-05 · known 2026-01-03 · sourcelegacy
OVERDUE — next obs expected by 2025-07-07
co2-trend-10yr-global-jan-dec
2.53 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -0.09 vs previous observation (2024): 2.62
58 annual obs 1968-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0.79..2.62
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-trend-10yr-mlo-jan-dec
2.56 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -0.08 vs previous observation (2024): 2.64
58 annual obs 1968-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0.82..2.64
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-trend-10yr-mlo-scripps
—
no data yet
ppm/yr · irregular
co2-trend-2020s-mlo-scripps
—
no data yet
ppm/yr · irregular
co2-trend-5yr-global-jan-dec
2.63 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -0.05 vs previous observation (2024): 2.68
63 annual obs 1963-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0.62..2.68
next expected by 2027-01-10
co2-trend-5yr-mlo-jan-dec
2.61 ppm/yr
obs 2025 · known 2026-01-10 · sourceverified
▼ -0.02 vs previous observation (2024): 2.63
63 annual obs 1963-12-31..2025-12-31; range 0.63..2.64
next expected by 2027-01-10

Assessment

⚠️ Accelerating in the wrong direction (yellow, assessed 2026-01-03)legacy
Atmospheric CO2 reached 426.5 ppm (Nov 2025) with the annual peak exceeding 430 ppm for the first time, and the 2023-2024 increase of +3.5 ppm was the largest on record. The jump was driven by continued fossil emissions, El Niño-weakened land sinks and record wildfires.
by migration:pilot-2025/climate.md · 5 evidence event(s)

Cited evidence (5)

  • 2025-11 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-03legacycited as evidence
    NOAA GML reported a Mauna Loa monthly mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of 426.5 ppm for November 2025.
  • 2025-05 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-05-01-scripps-mlo-peak-430ppm-rv
    Scripps reported that the annual peak of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa reached a monthly mean of 430.5 ppm in May 2025, the first time the peak exceeded 430 ppm.
  • 2024 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-03legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2024-01-01-wmo-record-co2-increase-2024-rv
    The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reported that global annual-mean atmospheric CO2 rose by 3.5 ppm from 2023 to 2024, the largest single-year increase on record, versus a decadal mean growth of 2.4 ppm/yr over 2011-2020, driven by continued fossil fuel emissions, El Niño-weakened land carbon sinks and record wildfires in the Amazon and Africa.
  • 2024 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-03legacycited as evidence
    NOAA GML data give a 2024 annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of 424.6 ppm at Mauna Loa and 422.8 ppm for the global marine-surface average.
  • 2025-11-13 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03legacycited as evidence since superseded by 2025-11-13-nature-sinks-15pct-weaker-rv
    A Nature study published alongside the Global Carbon Budget 2025 found land and ocean carbon sinks are 15% weaker than they would have been without climate impacts, contributing about 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1960.
    ↳ followup of 2025-11-13-gcb-2025-fossil-co2-record (superseded by 2025-11-13-gcb-2025-fossil-co2-record-rv)

Other events (7)

Milestone Countdown

Major Open Challenges

Beyond the framework: 4 event(s)
  • 2026-01-02 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-02verified
    On 2 January 2026 Ørsted filed a legal challenge against the Trump administration's halt of its $5 billion Revolution Wind offshore wind project.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2026-01-02-orsted-revolution-wind-challenge
  • 2025 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03verified
    Ember found that EV sales shares in Vietnam (~40%), Thailand (>20%) and Indonesia (15%) now exceed EV penetration in the US and Japan.
    Beyond the frameworkNet-Zero Transition [1] Ember: The EV Leapfrog
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ember-emerging-market-ev-leapfrog
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-03legacy
    IEA Coal 2024 reported that global coal demand hit a record 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, while projecting that demand has plateaued as renewables displace coal.
    Beyond the frameworkNet-Zero Transition [1] IEA Coal 2024
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-04-30legacy
    According to the IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025, China installed 357.3 GW of solar PV in 2024, about 60% of the global total.
    The BendNet-Zero TransitionBeyond the framework [1] IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2025
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 78)

Supplemental

The Knowledge Beyond

A great enabler for the future is deep understanding of our universe and the ability to manipulate it on a fine scale. Paradigm-breaking technologies like quantum computing and nanomachines, as well as new research ranging from mathematics to neuroscience (or, say, global broadband availability), may not impact any of the great endeavors directly, but they will reframe everything in the long run.

Supplemental section: no KPI, milestones or challenges in the framework.
Beyond the framework: 63 event(s)
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Semiconductors: TSMC's 2nm (N2) process offers 10-15% higher performance at the same power, 25-30% lower power at the same performance, and 15-20% higher density versus N3E.
    Beyond the framework [1] TSMC: 2nm technology
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Brain-computer interfaces: Synchron has about 10 patients in trials, is preparing a pivotal trial, and offers native integration with Apple devices.
    Beyond the framework [1] Synchron news
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Quantum computing investment: Quantum computing sector funding reached $1.25 billion in Q1 2025, up 128% year over year.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-quantum-q1-funding
  • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing workforce: Only about 600-700 quantum error correction specialists exist globally, versus an estimated 5,000-16,000 needed by 2030 (Riverlane QEC Report 2025).
    Beyond the framework [1] Riverlane QEC Report 2025
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing investment: In 2025 PsiQuantum raised a $1 billion Series E at a $7 billion valuation, supporting facilities in Chicago and Brisbane.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing: Microsoft's Majorana 1 topological qubit claims were disputed in 2025, with a Nature editorial stating the results 'do not represent evidence' for Majorana zero modes (MZMs).
    ↳ followup of 2025-02-19-microsoft-majorana-1 (superseded by 2025-02-19-microsoft-majorana-1-rv)
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Particle physics: CERN extended LHC Run 3 to July 2026.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-lhc-run3-extension
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Particle physics: The Large Hadron Collider delivered record luminosity (a record number of particle collisions) during Run 3 in 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-lhc-record-collisions
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing policy: Japan's government quantum investment reached about $7.9 billion, surpassing the United States, with AIST establishing quantum R&D bases.
    Beyond the framework [1] Riverlane QEC Report 2025
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing policy: Cumulative government quantum technology investment worldwide exceeds $55.7 billion, with governments investing $3.1 billion in 2024.
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Mathematics: Dennis Gaitsgory received the $3 million 2025 Breakthrough Prize in Mathematics for the proof of the geometric Langlands conjecture in characteristic 0.
    ↳ followup of 2024-01-01-geometric-langlands-proof (superseded by 2024-01-01-geometric-langlands-proof-rv)
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-gaitsgory-breakthrough-prize
  • 2025 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Connectomics: Nature Methods named electron-microscopy connectomics its 'Method of the Year 2025'.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-em-connectomics-method-of-year
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Quantum computing: D-Wave's quantum 'supremacy' claim was challenged when independent researchers matched some of its results on a classical laptop.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-dwave-supremacy-replicated
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Connectomics: A complete connectome of the adult Drosophila brain maps about 140,000 neurons and about 50 million synapses.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-drosophila-connectome
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Quantum computing policy: The US Department of Energy announced $625 million to renew its five National Quantum Information Science Research Centers.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-doe-625m-qis-centers
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05corrected
    Gene editing: Casgevy was the first-ever approved CRISPR-based medicine for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia; 50 active sites in North America, the European Union and the Middle East had opened and begun treating patients.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-casgevy-expansion
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Neurology: In 2025 the FDA approved a blood diagnostic test for Alzheimer's disease.
  • 2025-12 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-31verified
    6G policy: In December 2025 the US President issued a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM-8), 'Winning the 6G Race'.
    Beyond the framework [1] White House: NSPM-8
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-us-6g-memorandum
  • 2025-12 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-19corrected
    Semiconductors: CNBC reported Intel’s Arizona Fab 52 opening and its effort to attract foundry customers; the article does not document 18A high-volume production or D0 below 0.40.
    Beyond the framework [1] CNBC: Intel Arizona fab
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-intel-18a-hvm
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-18verified
    Particle physics: Private donors pledged €860 million toward CERN's proposed Future Circular Collider.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-fcc-860m-pledges
  • 2025-12 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-12-09legacy
    Brain-computer interfaces: In December 2025 Columbia, Stanford and Penn researchers reported the BISC brain implant chip with 65,536 electrodes and 100 Mbps wireless data transmission (Nature Electronics).
    Beyond the framework [1] ScienceDaily: BISC implant
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-09-25corrected
    Neurology: In September 2025 the European Commission granted marketing authorization for donanemab (Kisunla) to treat early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-alzheimers-antibody-approvals
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-09-04legacy
    Satellite internet: Eutelsat OneWeb operates 654 satellites providing global coverage.
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-03-14verified
    Mathematics: Hong Wang (NYU) and Joshua Zahl (UBC) proved the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a roughly 50-year-old problem, a result Terence Tao called 'spectacular'.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-kakeya-3d-proof
  • 2025-12-26 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-12-26corrected
    Science policy: China launched a national venture-capital guidance fund on 26 December 2025 to mobilize patient capital for innovation and future industries.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-china-1t-yuan-venture-fund
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Semiconductors: In November 2025 Samsung began mass production on its 2nm (SF2) gate-all-around process, focusing on AI accelerators.
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Satellite internet: Amazon Leo had 180 satellites in orbit and began an enterprise preview in November 2025.
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-30corrected
    Quantum computing: In November 2025 Quantinuum commercially launched its Helios quantum computer with 98 physical qubits, 99.921% two-qubit gate fidelity and quantum volume 2^25.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-quantinuum-helios-launch
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-30verified
    AI mathematics: In November 2025 Google DeepMind published the AlphaProof methodology in Nature, describing the system behind its IMO 2024 silver-medal-level performance (28/42 points).
    Beyond the framework [1] Nature: AlphaProof
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-alphaproof-nature
  • 2025-11 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-20verified
    Brain-computer interfaces: In November 2025 the FDA granted Paradromics an IDE approval for its Connect-One clinical study of the Connexus BCI, which targets speech restoration and has shown 200+ bits/s in preclinical tests.
    ↳ followup of 2025-06-01-paradromics-first-in-human
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-01-paradromics-ide-approval
  • 2025-11-17 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-11-17legacy
    Global connectivity: Per ITU, global internet users grew from 3.2 billion in 2015 to 4.6 billion in 2020 and 6.0 billion in 2025.
    Beyond the framework [1] ITU Facts and Figures 2025
  • 2025-11-17 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-11-17legacy
    Global connectivity: Per ITU 2025 data, internet use is 94% in high-income vs 23% in low-income countries, 85% in urban vs 58% in rural areas, and only 14% in rural areas of low-income countries.
    Beyond the framework [1] ITU Facts and Figures 2025
  • 2025-11-17 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-11-17legacy
    Global connectivity: 5G subscriptions reached about 3 billion worldwide in 2025, per ITU Facts and Figures 2025.
    Beyond the framework [1] ITU Facts and Figures 2025
  • 2025-11-17 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-11-17verified
    Global connectivity: ITU Facts and Figures 2025 reports 2.2 billion people still offline in 2025, down from 2.3 billion in 2024.
    Beyond the framework [1] ITU Facts and Figures 2025
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-17-itu-2-2-billion-offline
  • 2025-11-06 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-11-06verified
    Superconductivity: In November 2025 MIT physicists observed a V-shaped superconducting gap in magic-angle graphene, evidence of an unconventional superconductivity mechanism.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-06-mit-graphene-v-gap
  • 2025-10 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing investment: In October 2025 IonQ completed a $2 billion equity offering, bringing its pro-forma cash position to $3.5 billion.
  • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-31verified
    Nanomedicine: In October 2025 Northwestern University reported a spherical nucleic acid (SNA) leukemia therapy that was 10,000 times more effective than standard chemotherapy in an animal study.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-01-northwestern-sna-leukemia
  • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-31legacy
    Quantum computing: In October 2025 IonQ reported a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity and described a path to 2 million qubits by 2030.
  • 2025-09 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Neurology: In September 2025 a new drug application for tavapadon, a D1 dopamine agonist for Parkinson's disease, was submitted to the FDA.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-01-tavapadon-nda
  • 2025-09 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-09-30verified
    Quantum computing investment: In September 2025 Quantinuum raised $600 million at a $10 billion valuation, the largest valuation of any quantum computing company.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-01-quantinuum-600m-raise
  • 2025-08-01 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-08-01corrected
    Gene therapy: ASGCT’s Q2 2025 report counted 679 clinical-stage asset-indications and 36 gene therapies approved globally, including genetically modified cell therapies.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-asgct-pipeline-q2
  • 2025-07 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-07-31legacy
    Molecular machines: In July 2025 University of Bristol researchers demonstrated a self-driving molecular motor, the first with enzyme-powered autonomous rotation.
  • 2025-07 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-07-10verified
    Neurology: In July 2025 the FDA approved bilateral focused ultrasound treatment for Parkinson's disease.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-01-parkinsons-bilateral-fus-fda
  • 2025-07-01 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-07-01corrected
    AI mathematics: In July 2025 an OpenAI model’s solutions to the IMO problems were published in a GitHub repository.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-01-openai-imo-gold
  • 2025-06 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Brain-computer interfaces: In June 2025 Paradromics performed the first-in-human implantation of its Connexus brain-computer interface.
  • 2025-06 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30verified
    6G: In June 2025 3GPP initiated its 6G technical studies.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-06-01-3gpp-6g-studies
  • 2025-06-23 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-06-23corrected
    Astronomy: In June 2025 Vera C. Rubin Observatory released first imagery; just over 10 hours of test observations captured thousands of asteroids, including 2,104.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-06-01-rubin-first-light
  • 2025-05 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Nanomedicine: In May 2025 the FDA approved Yutrepia, made with PRINT particle technology, for pulmonary hypertension.
    Beyond the framework [1] FDA news & events
  • 2025-05 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-05-31legacy
    Gene editing: In May 2025 the first personalized CRISPR therapy was reported (NEJM): infant KJ was treated for CPS1 deficiency with a bespoke therapy designed within six months of diagnosis.
  • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Brain-computer interfaces: In April 2025 Precision Neuroscience received FDA 510(k) clearance for its minimally invasive cortical electrode array.
  • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Gene therapy: In April 2025 the FDA approved ZEVASKYN, a gene therapy for epidermolysis bullosa.
    Beyond the framework [1] FDA: ZEVASKYN
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-fda-zevaskyn
  • 2025-04-09 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-04-09corrected
    Connectomics: The MICrONS project published a mouse visual-cortex connectomics dataset with an electron-microscopy reconstruction of more than 200,000 neurons in Nature.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-microns-mouse-cortex
  • 2025-03-03 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-03-03corrected
    Mathematics: On 3 March 2025 Yu Deng, Zaher Hani and Xiao Ma posted a paper deriving fluid equations from Boltzmann’s kinetic theory as a contribution to Hilbert’s sixth problem.
    Beyond the framework [1] arXiv 2503.01800
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-03-01-hilbert-sixth-problem
  • 2025-02 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Nanomedicine: In February 2025 the EU approved a self-amplifying mRNA lipid-nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccine.
    Beyond the framework [1] European Medicines Agency
  • 2025-02-26 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-02-26corrected
    Quantum computing: On 26 February 2025 PsiQuantum-associated researchers published a Nature paper describing a manufacturable platform for photonic quantum computing.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-02-01-psiquantum-omega-nature
  • 2025-02-19 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-02-19verified
    Quantum computing: On 19 February 2025 Microsoft unveiled Majorana 1, which it called the first quantum processor with a Topological Core, designed to scale to 1 million qubits per chip.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-02-19-microsoft-majorana-1
  • 2025-01-01 · achievement · ●○○ · known 2025-01-01corrected
    Radio astronomy: In 2025 the SKA construction sites advanced, with a first image from an early SKA-Low version and first fringes from SKA-Mid.
    Beyond the framework [1] SKAO construction journey
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ska-first-signals
  • 2024 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-05verified
    Mathematics: In 2024 Dennis Gaitsgory and eight collaborators completed a roughly 1,000-page proof of the geometric Langlands conjecture, a problem open for over 30 years.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-01-01-geometric-langlands-proof
  • 2024-12 · achievement · ●●● · known 2024-12-31verified
    Quantum computing: In December 2024 Google unveiled its 105-qubit Willow chip, demonstrating below-threshold quantum error correction with errors reduced exponentially as the number of qubits scales.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-12-01-google-willow-below-threshold
  • 2024-12-01 · policy · ●○○ · known 2024-12-01corrected
    Nanotechnology policy: The December 2024 NNI supplement to the President’s FY2025 budget presents agency budget requests for nanotechnology R&D.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-nni-fy2025-budget
  • 2024-11-29 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2024-11-29corrected
    Mathematics: On 29 November 2024 Jineon Baek posted a 119-page paper claiming to resolve the moving sofa problem, showing Gerver’s construction is optimal.
    Beyond the framework [1] arXiv 2411.19826
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2024-11-01-moving-sofa-proof
Events under no current topic: 6
  • 2025-12-30 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Semiconductors: On 30 December 2025 TSMC began mass production of its 2nm (N2) node at Fab 22 in Kaohsiung, its first gate-all-around nanosheet transistor process, with 15 customers.
  • 2025-11-17 · data · ●●● · known 2025-11-17corrected
    Global connectivity: ITU reports 6 billion people using the Internet in 2025, up from a revised estimate of 5.8 billion in 2024; the world’s online population grew by more than 240 million.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-17-itu-6-billion-online
  • 2025-10 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-10-31legacy
    Quantum computing: In October 2025 Google's 'Quantum Echoes' experiment, peer-reviewed in Nature, demonstrated the first verifiable quantum advantage, running 13,000 times faster than the Frontier supercomputer.
  • 2025-07 · achievement · ●●● · known 2025-07-31corrected
    AI mathematics: In July 2025 Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think achieved gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad, scoring 35/42 points with natural-language proofs.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-07-01-gemini-deep-think-imo-gold
  • 2025-02-04 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2025-02-04verified
    Superconductivity: On 4 February 2025 SLAC/Stanford researchers reported stabilizing nickelate high-temperature superconductors at ambient pressure, described as the first such high-Tc superconductor stable without extreme pressure.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-02-04-slac-nickelate-ambient
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 69)
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Brain-computer interfaces: Neuralink has implanted 12+ patients who have logged over 15,000 hours of use, reaching 9+ bits/s mouse control, and holds FDA Breakthrough Device designations for speech and Blindsight.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05corrected
    Satellite internet: By July 2025 Starlink served more than 6 million active customers globally, after adding 2.7 million+ customers and expanding to 42 new countries, territories and other markets over the prior year.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-starlink-9m-subscribers
  • 2025 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing investment: In 2025 PsiQuantum raised a $1 billion Series E at a $7 billion valuation, supporting facilities in Chicago and Brisbane.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing: Microsoft's Majorana 1 topological qubit claims were disputed in 2025, with a Nature editorial stating the results 'do not represent evidence' for Majorana zero modes (MZMs).
    ↳ followup of 2025-02-19-microsoft-majorana-1 (superseded by 2025-02-19-microsoft-majorana-1-rv)
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Particle physics: The Large Hadron Collider delivered record luminosity (a record number of particle collisions) during Run 3 in 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-lhc-record-collisions
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Quantum computing policy: Japan's government quantum investment reached about $7.9 billion, surpassing the United States, with AIST establishing quantum R&D bases.
    Beyond the framework [1] Riverlane QEC Report 2025
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Mathematics: Dennis Gaitsgory received the $3 million 2025 Breakthrough Prize in Mathematics for the proof of the geometric Langlands conjecture in characteristic 0.
    ↳ followup of 2024-01-01-geometric-langlands-proof (superseded by 2024-01-01-geometric-langlands-proof-rv)
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-gaitsgory-breakthrough-prize
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Quantum computing: D-Wave's quantum 'supremacy' claim was challenged when independent researchers matched some of its results on a classical laptop.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-dwave-supremacy-replicated

Society and Cohesion

As humanity progresses in its great endeavors, many challenges await our society. To survive into the future, we must pass the great filters — avoid wiping ourselves out with weapons of mass destruction, align our robots (align with what?) and learn to coexist with them (a new alien intelligence), as well as keep humans in some relationships with one another and the physical world. Meanwhile, trust is breaking, alienation and polarization are growing, and simulacra are getting more attractive than the real world. But society can adapt — 40 years ago, "open source" wasn't really a concept, but we fought off massive corporate capture and it now underpins vast areas of technology and knowledge (think: Wikipedia). What are the next philosophy, sociology, and social technologies best serving humanity's future?

Supplemental section: no KPI, milestones or challenges in the framework.
Beyond the framework: 77 event(s)
  • 2025-12 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05corrected
    The FLI Winter 2025 AI Safety Index published grades for leading AI labs, including C+, C and D grades; not all labs received D or lower.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-fli-safety-index-all-labs-d
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Community Notes on X took about 14 days on average to be published.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The World Happiness Report 2025 ranked the United States 24th, its lowest ever position.
    Beyond the framework [1] World Happiness Report 2025
  • 2025 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The World Happiness Report 2025 found, via wallet-return experiments, that people are kinder than expected, while young Americans report feeling less supported and less optimistic.
    Beyond the framework [1] World Happiness Report 2025
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The World Happiness Report 2025 ranked Finland the happiest country for the 8th consecutive year, with a score of 7.74.
    Beyond the framework [1] World Happiness Report 2025
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-05corrected
    The V-Dem Democracy Report 2025 found 91 autocracies and 88 democracies, with 72% of the world population living under autocratic rule versus 49% in 2004; liberal democracy was at its lowest level since 1990.
    KPIBeyond the framework [1] V-Dem Democracy Report 2025
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-vdem-2025-autocracies-outnumber-democracies
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Surveys found 72% of US teens have tried AI companions, 52% are regular users, and 48% use them for mental health support.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 estimated about 12,241 nuclear warheads globally, with all major nuclear powers modernizing their arsenals.
    Beyond the framework [1] SIPRI Yearbook 2025
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Student-led protests in Serbia continued for more than 13 months through 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-serbia-student-protests-13-months
  • 2025 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    A PNAS study found that displaying a Community Note on a post reduced its reposts by 46%.
  • 2025 · projection · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    Oxfam projected that at least 5 trillionaires will emerge within a decade.
    Beyond the framework [1] Oxfam: Takers, Not Makers
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-oxfam-trillionaires-projection
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The OECD was tracking more than 700 citizen assemblies worldwide in 2025, and the EU launched a deliberative democracy accelerator.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    As of the end of 2025, no replacement had been agreed for New START, the last major US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, which expires on 5 February 2026.
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Nepal's Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned in 2025 after a youth-led Gen Z protest movement.
  • 2025 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Mongolia's Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene resigned in 2025 after youth-led protests.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The Linux Foundation's State of Open Source 2025 put the value of open source software at $8.8 trillion.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Prediction market Kalshi exceeded $1 billion in weekly trading volume in 2025, up more than 1000% year on year.
    Beyond the framework [1] Kalshi
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    DataReportal figures put average global daily screen time at 6 hours 40 minutes.
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05corrected
    Georgia’s EU accession process was suspended and protests continued in 2025 after the disputed election, as described in the fetched page.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-georgia-eu-accession-protests
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The Edelman Trust Barometer 2025 found 61% of people globally hold institutional grievances (feeling institutions work against them) and 40% approve of hostile activism as a legitimate way to drive change.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    DeepStrike (vendor estimate) put the number of deepfakes circulating online at about 8 million in 2025, up 900% since 2023.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey data show 40% of US high school students report persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The CDC counted 71 human H5N1 bird flu cases in the US, including 2 deaths.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    AARP found 40% of US adults aged 45 and older were lonely in 2025, up from 35% in 2010 and 2018, 37% in 2020 and 38% in 2023.
  • 2025 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-12-30verified
    DAO governance activity declined in 2025, with proposal counts down 60-90% year on year and voting power concentrating, per the State of DeFi report.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-dao-proposals-decline
  • 2025 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-30legacy
    The first AI-orchestrated, state-sponsored cyber-espionage campaign was detected in 2025, as reported by The Guardian.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-03corrected
    Carnegie reported that anti-government protests emerged in more than seventy countries in 2025, with protests driven by corruption, overreach and hardship.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-genz-protest-wave-70-countries
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-08-26corrected
    ADP/Stanford research found employment for 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs fell 6% between late 2022 and July 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-adp-early-career-ai-jobs-decline
  • 2025 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-05-21verified
    Italy's data protection authority fined Luka Inc., the company behind the Replika chatbot, EUR 5 million for GDPR violations.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-italy-fines-replika
  • 2025 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2025-01-20corrected
    Oxfam's 'Takers, Not Makers' report says 60% of billionaire wealth comes from inheritance, cronyism and corruption, or monopoly power.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-oxfam-unearned-wealth
  • 2025 · projection · ●○○ · known 2025-01-01corrected
    Precedence Research estimated the AI companion market at USD 12.61 billion in 2025 and projected it to reach USD 187.85 billion by 2035.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ai-companion-market-projection
  • 2025-12-29 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-28legacy
    China held its largest-ever military exercise encircling Taiwan on 29-30 December 2025, including live-fire drills.
  • 2025-12-12 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-12-12legacy
    On 12 December 2025 OpenAI and Microsoft were sued over ChatGPT's alleged role in a murder-suicide.
  • 2025-12-11 · policy · ●●● · known 2025-12-11corrected
    On 11 December 2025 President Trump signed Executive Order 14365, titled “Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence.”
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-11-trump-eo-preempts-state-ai-laws
  • 2025-12-10 · policy · ●●● · known 2025-12-09legacy
    On 10 December 2025 Australia's ban on social media accounts for under-16s took effect, the first national ban of its kind in the world.
  • 2025-12-05 · policy · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    On 5 December 2025 the European Commission fined X EUR 120 million for deceptive blue checkmarks, the first enforcement fine under the Digital Services Act.
  • 2025-12-04 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-04corrected
    Pew reported that 44% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents felt angry at the federal government, compared with 9% of Republicans and Republican leaners, a 35-point gap.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-04-pew-partisan-anger-gap-35
  • 2025-11 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    By November 2025 Meta's Community Notes, expanded across platforms serving 3B+ users, had more than 200,000 US contributors.
    ↳ followup of 2025-04-01-meta-community-notes-live-us (superseded by 2025-04-01-meta-community-notes-live-us-rv)
  • 2025-11 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Bluesky passed 40 million users in November 2025, roughly triple its user count a year earlier.
  • 2025-11 · data · ●○○ · known 2025-11-30legacy
    An American Psychological Association survey released in November 2025 found 54% of US adults feel isolated.
  • 2025-11-28 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    On 28 November 2025 the Council of Europe Congress advanced deliberative democracy (including citizen assemblies) as part of its contribution to the New Democratic Pact.
  • 2025-11-15 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-11-24verified
    The first human death from H5N5, a novel avian influenza subtype, was reported in the US on 15 November 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-15-first-h5n5-human-fatality
  • 2025-11-06 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    On 6 November 2025 the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on autonomous weapons by 156 votes to 5, though no binding treaty exists.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-11-06-unga-autonomous-weapons-resolution
  • 2025-11-06 · setback · ●●○ · known 2025-11-06legacy
    By November 2025 families had filed 8 or more wrongful death lawsuits against AI companies, including OpenAI over ChatGPT, over chatbot-related deaths.
  • 2025-10-29 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-10-29verified
    On 29 October 2025 Character.AI announced it would ban all users under 18 from its chatbots following lawsuits over teen suicides.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-29-character-ai-bans-under-18
  • 2025-10-27 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-10-27verified
    OpenAI data reported on 27 October 2025 showed more than 1 million ChatGPT users per week show signs of suicidal intent in their conversations.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-27-chatgpt-users-suicidal-intent
  • 2025-10-13 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-10-13verified
    On 13 October 2025 California became the first US state to regulate AI companion chatbots, with SB 243 signed into law.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-10-13-california-sb243-ai-companions
  • 2025-10-07 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-10-07legacy
    On 7 October 2025 Denmark's prime minister announced plans to ban social media for children under 15.
  • 2025-09-23 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-09-23corrected
    Ten open-source foundations published a joint statement warning that open infrastructure funding is fragile and unsustainable.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-23-oss-foundations-funding-statement
  • 2025-09-11 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-09-11corrected
    On 11 September 2025 the US FTC launched an inquiry into companies offering AI chatbots acting as companions.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-09-11-ftc-inquiry-ai-companions
  • 2025-08-13 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2025-08-13verified
    In August 2025 Geoffrey Hinton reiterated to CNN a 10-20% chance of AI causing human extinction within 30 years.
    ↳ confirmation of 2024-12-27-hinton-raises-extinction-odds
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-08-13-hinton-cnn-extinction-risk
  • 2025-08-04 · policy · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    On 4 August 2025 California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order addressing loneliness among boys and young men.
  • 2025-06-30 · data · ●●● · known 2025-06-30verified
    The WHO Commission on Social Connection's first global report on social connection (30 June 2025) estimated that about 1 in 6 people worldwide (~16%) experience loneliness and that loneliness causes about 871,000 deaths a year (roughly 100 every hour, model-based estimate).
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-06-30-who-social-connection-report-loneliness
  • 2025-06-13 · data · ●●● · known 2025-09-30verified
    Israeli and US strikes on Iran between 13 and 24 June 2025 destroyed about 22,000 Iranian centrifuges, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
    ↳ followup of 2025-06-12-iaea-iran-non-compliance
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-06-13-israel-us-strikes-iran-centrifuges
  • 2025-06-12 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    On 12 June 2025 the IAEA Board formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, its first such non-compliance finding against Iran in 20 years.
    Beyond the framework [1] IAEA Board reports on Iran
  • 2025-05 · policy · ●●○ · known 2025-06-30verified
    In May 2025 the World Health Assembly adopted its first resolution treating loneliness and social connection as a public health priority.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-05-01-wha-resolution-loneliness
  • 2025-05-22 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-05-22verified
    On 22 May 2025 Anthropic activated AI Safety Level 3 (ASL-3) CBRN protections for Claude Opus 4, an industry first.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-05-22-anthropic-asl3-claude-opus-4
  • 2025-05-19 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    On 19 May 2025 the US TAKE IT DOWN Act was signed into law, the first federal law addressing AI-generated non-consensual intimate imagery.
  • 2025-04 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-05verified
    In April 2025 South Korea's Constitutional Court unanimously (8-0) upheld President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment, removing him from office over his martial law attempt.
    ↳ followup of 2024-12-01-south-korea-martial-law-reversed
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-south-korea-yoon-removed
  • 2025-04 · announcement · ●●○ · known 2025-01-31verified
    Meta's Community Notes went live in the US in April 2025.
    ↳ followup of 2025-01-07-meta-ends-us-fact-checking (superseded by 2025-01-07-meta-ends-us-fact-checking-rv)
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-04-01-meta-community-notes-live-us
  • 2025-03-25 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2025-03-25legacy
    V-Dem researchers flagged the United States as the fastest-evolving episode of autocratization in modern history.
  • 2025-02 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-02-28verified
    Freedom House reported a 19th consecutive year of global freedom decline in Freedom in the World 2025, with 60 countries deteriorating.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-02-01-freedom-house-19th-year-decline
  • 2025-02-13 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    On 13 February 2025 the EU integrated the Code of Practice on Disinformation into the Digital Services Act framework.
  • 2025-02-02 · policy · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05verified
    The EU AI Act's prohibited AI practices took effect on 2 February 2025.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-02-02-eu-ai-act-prohibitions-effective
  • 2025-01 · announcement · ●○○ · known 2025-01-13verified
    In January 2025 Mastodon announced it would restructure as a European non-profit organization.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-mastodon-european-nonprofit
  • 2025-01-07 · policy · ●●● · known 2025-01-07verified
    On 7 January 2025 Meta announced it would end its US third-party fact-checking program and shift to a Community Notes model.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-07-meta-ends-us-fact-checking
  • 2024-12 · achievement · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    South Korea's martial law declaration was reversed within 6 hours by a 190-0 National Assembly vote, and President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached within 11 days.
  • 2024 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Romania's presidential election was annulled over a Russian-linked TikTok bot campaign, the first European election cancelled over cyber interference.
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Oxfam reported billionaire wealth grew by $2.8 trillion in 2024, about $7.9 billion per day.
    Beyond the framework [1] Oxfam: Takers, Not Makers
  • 2024 · achievement · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Student-led protests in Bangladesh ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after 15 years in power.
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05corrected
    Stanford AI Index 2025 figures cited by Responsible AI Labs recorded 233 AI safety incidents in 2024.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-ai-safety-incidents-233
  • 2024-12-27 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2024-12-27legacy
    Geoffrey Hinton estimated a 10-20% chance that AI leads to human extinction within the next 30 years, raising his earlier odds.
  • 2024-12-27 · data · ●○○ · known 2024-12-27corrected
    The Guardian reported that Geoffrey Hinton estimated a 10–20% chance of AI causing human extinction within 30 years.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2022-01-01-ai-expert-survey-extinction-median
  • 2024-09-09 · data · ●○○ · known 2024-09-09legacy
    Pew Research found 80% of US adults say Republican and Democratic voters cannot agree on basic facts.
  • 2023 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    According to the World Happiness Report 2025, 25% of Americans ate all their meals alone in 2023.
    Beyond the framework [1] World Happiness Report 2025
  • 2023 · analysis · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The US Surgeon General's advisory on social connection equated the health impact of loneliness to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
  • 2023 · setback · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Russia suspended inspections under the New START nuclear arms control treaty in 2023.
Events under no current topic: 6
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The Edelman Trust Barometer 2025 put average institutional trust (business, government, NGOs and media) across 28 countries at 56%, flat versus the prior year.
  • 2024 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions (2024 results) found 39% of respondents across OECD countries had high trust in their national government.
  • 2022 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    World Values Survey Wave 7 (2022) found the share agreeing 'most people can be trusted' was 74% in Denmark, 72% in Norway, 63% in China, 43% in the UK, 42% in Germany, 37% in the US, 22% in South Africa and 11% in Brazil.
  • 2022 · data · ●○○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    World Values Survey data compiled by Our World in Data put global interpersonal trust (share agreeing 'most people can be trusted', WVS median) at roughly 30-35%.
  • 2025-12-04 · data · ●●○ · known 2025-12-04legacy
    Pew Research reported on 4 December 2025 that 17% of US adults trust the federal government to do what is right always or most of the time in 2025, down from 22% in 2024 and near historic lows (earlier readings: 19% in 2015, 18% in 2017, 17% in 2019, 27% in 2020, 24% in 2021, 20% in 2022, 16% in 2023).
  • 2025-01-28 · announcement · ●●● · known 2025-01-28verified
    The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set its Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight on 28 January 2025, the closest ever.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-28-doomsday-clock-89-seconds
Latest events (the 8 most recently known of 83)
  • 2025 · data · ●●● · known 2026-01-05corrected
    The V-Dem Democracy Report 2025 found 91 autocracies and 88 democracies, with 72% of the world population living under autocratic rule versus 49% in 2004; liberal democracy was at its lowest level since 1990.
    KPIBeyond the framework [1] V-Dem Democracy Report 2025
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-01-01-vdem-2025-autocracies-outnumber-democracies
  • 2025 · setback · ●●● · known 2026-01-05legacy
    As of the end of 2025, no replacement had been agreed for New START, the last major US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, which expires on 5 February 2026.
  • 2025-12 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05corrected
    The FLI Winter 2025 AI Safety Index published grades for leading AI labs, including C+, C and D grades; not all labs received D or lower.
    ↳ supersedes (corrects / adds sources to) 2025-12-01-fli-safety-index-all-labs-d
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The World Happiness Report 2025 ranked the United States 24th, its lowest ever position.
    Beyond the framework [1] World Happiness Report 2025
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    Surveys found 72% of US teens have tried AI companions, 52% are regular users, and 48% use them for mental health support.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 estimated about 12,241 nuclear warheads globally, with all major nuclear powers modernizing their arsenals.
    Beyond the framework [1] SIPRI Yearbook 2025
  • 2025 · analysis · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    A PNAS study found that displaying a Community Note on a post reduced its reposts by 46%.
  • 2025 · data · ●●○ · known 2026-01-05legacy
    The OECD was tracking more than 700 citizen assemblies worldwide in 2025, and the EU launched a deliberative democracy accelerator.